213 Miles From Shea

Are you sick of seeing the Marlins yet? After playing the Marlins six times in spring training, and three times in the first week of the season – the schedule gods have dictated another Marlins vs Mets series.

The Mets are coming off of a three game sweep of the Blue Jays. Since playing the Mets, the Marlins split a two game set with the Braves, with the rubber game getting washed out yesterday. Sandy Alcantara was supposed to pitch in Sunday’s game and will miss tonight’s game as he and his wife prepare to welcome a baby girl (congrats Sandy!). Can the Mets bats breakout of their funk against a spot starter?

Kodai Senga faced the Marlins in his first start of the season where he allowed two runs, four earned, over five innings from three hits and a walk while striking out eight batters. The under-the-hood numbers for Senga were a mixed bag in his first start. On the positive side he had a 41% Whiff% and a 63.6 GB%. He also had a 54.5% Hard-Hit rate. Senga used his four seamer 28.6% of the time while the ghost fork made up 26.0% of pitches thrown. Will he attack the Marlins the same way tonight? The Marlins have the following career numbers against him:

• Jonah Bride 0-1, BB, K
• Griffin Conine 0-2
• Xavier Edwards 1-7, 2B, 2 K
• Nick Fortes 0-4, 2 K
• Otto López 0-2
• Matt Mervis 0-4, BB, 2 K
• Dane Myers 0-2, K
• Graham Pauley 1-2, 2B, K
• Kyle Stowers 1-3, HR, 2 K

The Marlins are leaning on Valente Bellozo as a spot starter tonight. On March 29th, Bellozo pitched 4 1/3 innings against the Pirates, holding them to one run from four hits and two walks while striking out four batters. They then sent him down to the minors where he pitched two innings on Friday, allowing one run from two hits and a walk while striking out three batters. It is unclear how deep Bellozo will be able to go in today’s game. The Marlins bullpen had yesterday off to rest, but the Mets have an opportunity now to make them work extra at the start of this series if they can knock Bellozo out fast.

Bellozo made one start against the Mets last season, allowing two runs form seven hits over 5 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 1-3
• Francisco Lindor 1-3
• Starling Marte 1-3, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-2, HR, BB
• Tyrone Taylor 0-2, K
• Luis Torrens 0-2, K
• Mark Vientos 1-3, K
• Jesse Winker 1-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Score Runs! The Mets bullpen has been brilliant to start the year, keeping the Mets in every game. They have been carrying the Mets over their four game winning streak while the bats for the most part have gone silent. Yesterday the Mets turned three walks and seven hits into only two runs going 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position leaving seven batters on base.
2. Back half of the lineup. A big reason the Mets left so many runners on base yesterday was because of the back half of the lineup. The Mets 1-4 batters yesterday combine to go 5-for-13 with two strikeouts. The rest of the Mets lineup went 2-for-15 with seven strikeouts.
3. Mets bullpen. The Mets bullpen held the Blue Jays scoreless for 4 1/3 innings on Sunday, allowing one hit and striking out five batters. Overall against Toronto the bullpen allowed only one run in 13 innings. Between playing close games, early exits by starters, and an offense that is struggling, the Mets have really leaned heavily on the bullpen the last few days. Senga was limited to only 77 pitches in his first start, so it could be another bullpen intensive night.

Let’s Go Mets!

“We really believe it every time” – Francisco Lindor, after Saturday night’s walk-off win.

The Mets had traffic on the base paths most innings in last night’s game, consistently getting runners on and in scoring position. They just couldn’t get runners home. Then Jesse Winker hit his second triple of the game, bringing in two runs. Lindor would hit a walk-off sacrifice fly in the bottom of the ninth.

The confidence that Lindor talked about after the game (that Will Sammon credits to Pete Alonso in linked article) is what made the Mets a force in June of last year. We love to see that confidence in April and we hope it can carry the Mets to a sweep of the Blue Jays this afternoon at Citi Field.

David Peterson allowed only two runs off of five hits and three walks in his first start while striking out nine batters. Obviously its early, but so far this season his 36 Whiff% is good for the 85th percentile. Peterson had a rough start against the Blue Jays last September where he allowed five runs, four earned over 4 1/3 innings from eight hits hits and two walks while striking out two. The Blue Jays have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Bo Bichette 0-3, K
• Ernie Clement 1-3
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0-4, BB
• Tyler Heineman 0-1
• Alejandro Kirk 1-3, 2B
• Anthony Santander 1-6, BB, K
• Davis Schneider 1-2, 3B, K
• George Springer 1-3

Bowden Francis had a very similar stat line to David Peterson in his first start of the season. Francis allowed two runs from two hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings. Last season Francis split time between the bullpen and the rotation totaling 103 2/3 innings over 27 games with a 3.30 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 0.926 WHIP and a 121 ERA+. He was much more effective as a starter, posting a 2.92 ERA, 0.753 WHIP over 77 innings. This includes a stellar start against the Mets where he held the Mets to a solo home run and nothing else over eight innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 1-4, HR
• Starling Marte 0-2, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 0-3
• Juan Soto 1-2, K
• Mark Vientos 0-3, K
• Jesse Winker 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Seeing Double. On Friday afternoon the Mets had three doubles (Lindor, Soto and Nimmo). On Saturday night the Mets had two doubles (Lindor, Winker). The Mets have hit five of their 16 total doubles this season in the first two games of this series, good for 6th in the league. For context, the Diamondbacks and Cubs lead the league with 22 doubles and the Mariners are in 30th with only five. While the Mets have only scored eight runs this series, lets hope the extra-base hit barrage continues this afternoon.
2. Ryne Stanek. We’ll probably see Ryne Stanek this afternoon. Stanek has only pitched 1 1/3 innings this season, last pitching on Wednesday. Over his two games he has allowed a hit, two walks and struck out one batter. His fastball has averaged 98.7 mph so far this season, which is almost a full mph faster than 2024 (averaged 97.8). We also have to take that with a grain of salt as he has only thrown 16 fastballs this season.
3. Francisco Lindor. Friday was the first game this season where Lindor got on base twice by hits or walks. He did it again yesterday! In his last two games he is 2-for-5 with three walks, two doubles and three runs scored. He also had the walk-off sacrifice fly last night. It feels like Lindor is starting to heat up!

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets attempt to win their second consecutive series as they take on the Blue Jays this afternoon at Citi Field! Pete Alonso got the team and the crowd going Friday with his third homerun of the season, giving the Mets a 2-0 lead in the first inning. The Mets never looked back as they went on to win 5-0.

Rain is the story for the rest of the weekend. There are chances of showers and thunderstorms for most of the night and that threat increases after 10 PM. If the field and players can handle it, there’s a lot of incentive to play through early bursts of rain so the end of the game doesn’t get called. Tomorrow is a rinse and repeat (pun kind-of intended?) situation with a chance of showers throughout the afternoon, getting worse at night. Hopefully April showers bring a blooming box score for the Mets!

Griffin Canning allowed two runs from four hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings in his first start of the season. He leaned heavily on his slider in his first start, throwing it over 50% of the time. The slider was his most used pitch in his last spring start as well, but he tossed it only 44.5% of the time. In 2024 his slider made up 24.1% of all pitches. Let’s see what happens with his pitch selection today!

One of Canning’s best 2024 starts was against the Blue Jays. He held them scoreless and allowed only two hits over six innings while striking out six. The Blue Jays have the following career batting lines against Canning:

• Bo Bichette 0-2, K
• Ernie Clement 0-2, K
• Andrés Giménez 2-6, K
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1-6, HR, 3 K
• Alejandro Kirk 1-3, 2B
• Anthony Santander 3-12, 2 2B, 2 K
• George Spring 1-7, 2 BB, K
• Myles Straw 0-3, BB, 2 K
• Will Wagner 0-3

Chris Bassitt was a stabilizing presence in the 2022 Mets rotation. He made 30 starts, pitched 181 2/3 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.145 WHIP and a 113 ERA+. He is now in year three of a three year contract with the Blue Jays. In 377 innings for the Jays he has a 3.82 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 1.313 WHIP and a 109 ERA+. In his 2025 debut, he scattered eight hits, allowing only one run to score over six innings.

Bassitt last faced the Mets in September where he allowed only one run from five hits and a walk over six innings while striking out eight. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 0-5
• Brett Baty 0-3, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 4-14, HR, BB, 3 K
• Starling Marte 1-8, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-6, 2 K
• Jose Siri 1-5, HR, K
• Juan Soto 2-9, 2 BB, K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-2
• Luis Torrens 2-4, BB, 2 K
• Mark Vientos 0-6, 4 K
• Jesse Winker 2-4, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete Alonso. Alonso is fueling this offense right now, getting big hit after big hit. In his last four games he has gone 6-for-15 at the plate with two doubles, three home runs, 10 RBI’s and three walks. This translates into a .500 OBP and a 1.133 SLG. To put the 10 RBI’s in perspective, the Mets have scored only 23 runs in those four games.
2. Francisco Lindor. Lindor went 0-for-11 in Houston. Since then he has gone 3-for-11 in three games with two walks. Friday night Lindor had a double (his first of the season), two walks (his first of the season), and a stolen base (his second of the season). He was on base three times, he scored two runs (most he has this season in one game) and the Mets won the ball game. Let’s hope this is a sign things are clicking for him now! Lindor, followed by Juan Soto, followed by this version of Pete Alonso is going to rake!
3. Hitters Off To Slow Starts. The Mets have a few hitters that off to slow starts and there’s no day like today to break out! Whether its from a solid start or a pinch hit, sometimes it just takes one hit or one solid at bat to start the avalanche. Mark Veintos is 2-for-27 this season with two walks. In his last three games he has gone 0-for-12 (but only two strikeouts!). Jose Siri is 1-for-12 with a walk. We’ve seen the chaos he he can cause on the base paths, but since his first game when he got on base twice, he has gone 1-for-10 (with only one strikeout!). Brett Baty is 1-for-14 to start the season. After striking out three times in his first two games he has struck out only once in his last three.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets return home for the first time in 2025!

The Mets had a come from behind, extra-innings win on Wednesday to take the series from the Marlins. Pitching has kept the Mets in every game this season with a 2.38 ERA so far. Defensive miscues and lack of offense at times has prevented the Mets from taking full advantage of the pitching staff’s performance. Can the Mets bats wake up tonight against the Blue Jays who are on a four game winning streak?

Tylor Megill allowed only one run from three hits and a walk over five innings while striking out six in his first start. Before his start last week, we noted that statcast recorded eight different pitches thrown by Megill in 2024. In his first start he tossed five pitches: a four seamer (50.6% of the time), slider (22.1%), sinker (20.8%). changeup (3.9%, three total pitches) and curveball (2.6%). One his best starts of 2024 was against the Blue Jays where he one-hit them over six innings while striking out nine batters. The Blue Jays have the following career numbers against him:

• Bo Bichette 2-5, BB
• Andrés Giménez, 0-3, 3 K
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0-7, 2 BB, 2 K
• Alejandro Kirk 2-5, BB
• Nathan Lukes 0-2, K
• Anthony Santander 2-3, 2B, HR
• George Springer 1-8, K
• Will Wagner 0-1, BB, K

The Mets bats will try to get themselves going against Kevin Gausman this afternoon. He allowed two runs from three hits and a walk over six innings in his first start this season. Last season he pitched 181 innings over 31 starts with a 3.83 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 1.221 WHIP and a 104 ERA+. Before you move on the Mets numbers against Gausman, make a prediction, which two hitters have eight hits and an OBP over .680 against Gausman over their careers? Read on to find out!

• Pete Alonso 1-4, 3B, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 3-9, HR, BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 8-13, 3 2B, HR, BB, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-7, 2 BB, K
• Jose Siri 0-9, 4 K
• Juan Soto 8-15, 2 2B, HR, 12 BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-2, K
• Jesse Winker 2-12, 3 BB, 3K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tylor Megill pitch selection. We are still watching Megill’s pitch selection. In 2024 he used his four seamer 46.7% of the time, which is close to his first start. He used his slider almost twice as much in his first start this year (22.1% vs 11%). Statcast didn’t pick up any cutters in his first start, a pitch he used 14.2% of the time in 2024.
2. Andrés Giménez. Hey! We know him! Giménez made his major league debut with the Mets at 21-years old in 2020, putting up 1.0 bWAR over 49 games (101 OPS+). He had a slick glove and was a highly touted prospect. The trade package that brought Francisco Lindor to New York was built around him! Giménez put up an insane 7.4 bWAR in 2022 for the Guardians (141 OPS+) as his bat took a significant step forward with his glove. He signed a massive extension with the Guardians who then traded him this year mainly for salary relief. He’s already off to a hot start going 8-for-26 with two doubles and three home runs (229 OPS+) in 2025.
3. Pete Alonso. Alonso loved Miami. He went 5-for-12 with two doubles, two home runs and eight RBI’s throughout the series with four runs scored. He hit a grand slam in the first game that broke the game open. His three hits on Wednesday all came off the bat between 113.1 and 114.5 mph. Just insane stuff from the polar bear!

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to bounce back in a rubber game against the Marlins this afternoon in Miami! Last night the Marlins were able to take advantage of defensive miscues from the Mets scoring four runs on only two hits. A win this afternoon means the Mets will come back to New York with a .500 record!

Clay Holmes allowed three runs, two earned over 4 2/3 innings in his first start of the season, allowing five hits and four walks while striking out four. More importantly Holmes reached 89 pitches thrown as he continues to stretch himself out into a starting pitcher. How many times do the Mets today allow Holmes to go through the order? His first start was fairly inconclusive for this, with opponents reaching base at a .444 clip both their first and second time through the order, then .400 the third time through. The only two Marlins who faced Homes are Nick Fortes (1-for-1) and Kyle Stowers (1-for-1, BB).

Connor Gillispie allowed four runs, three earned over five innings in his first start of the season from four hits and four walks. Gillispie had a cup of coffee in 2024 with the Guardians allowing two runs over eight innings in three relief outings. His four seamer sits in the low-90’s and used it about a third of the time in his first star. He also uses his low-80’s sweeper about a third of a time and mixes in a mid-80’s cutter and mid-to-high-80’s changeup. Juan Soto is the only batter on the Mets who has faced Connor in a major league game (0-for-1, K).

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can the Mets turn loud outs into loud hits? The Mets had a couple of outs last night that could have easily been hits. Luisangel’s 104.9 mph groundout had an xBA of .420. Juan Soto’s 104.8 mph lineout had an xBA of .550! At some point these hard hits will turn into hits. The Mets had loud outs in Houston that turned into a rout the first game of this series.
2. Brandon Nimmo. Is Brandon Nimmo hitting home runs back? Nimmo homered in his second straight game last night (3-for-8, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 K). In his first series in Houston he went 2-for-11 with a walk. The Mets offense really kicks into another gear when Nimmo hits tanks!
3. Say goodbye to Miami. In the new “everybody plays everybody” baseball schedule MLB has used over the last few years, division rivals play four series a season against each other. The Mets have one more trip against the Marlins and it’s the very last series of the season. Mets fans have been loud in Miami the last couple of nights and hopefully the Mets can give them something to cheer about this afternoon!

Let’s Go Mets!

No need to lease an apartment in Panic City, the Mets offense came roaring back to life last night. The Mets scored 10 runs, powered by four home runs including a Pete Alonso grand slam as they beat the Marlins to take the first game of the series.

Tonight we get a battle of aces coming off lost years due to injury. Kodai Senga returns after making only one start in the regular season. Sandy Alcantara missed all of 2024 after having Tommy John in October 2023. Should be an exciting night in Miami!

Kodai Senga was a sensation in 2023. He finished the season making 29 starts, tossing 166 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.220 WHIP and a 140 ERA+. He struck out 202 batters, was an All-Star, finished 7th in Cy Young voting and 2nd for ROY voting. Injuries fully derailed his 2024. He made one start in July, allowing two runs over 5 1/3 innings before an injury sidelined him again until the October. How far the Mets go this year could depend on how Senga comes back from injury. There are only three Marlins have have seen Senga in an official major league game:

• Xavier Edwards 0-4, K
• Nick Fortes 0-2, K
• Matt Mervis 0-2, BB, K

Sandy Alcantara missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. The ace of the Marlins staff had a tremendous 2022 with an 8.0 bWAR over 228 2/3 innings. His 2023 was a step back, where he had a 4.14 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.213 WHIP and a 113 ERA (3.9 bWAR) over 184 2/3 innings. In his first start this year he allowed two runs from two hits and four walks while striking out seven over 4 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Sandy:

• Pete Alonso 5-32, 3 2B, HR, 2 BB, 8 K
• Francisco Lindor 7-25, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 4 K
• Starling Marte 5-15, 2 3B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Brandon Nimmo 4-30, 2 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
• Jose Siri 2-6, 2B, K
• Juan Soto 11-38, 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 6 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-6, 2 K
• Jesse Winker 1-4, 2B

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Juan Soto to Pete Alonso. Last night’s game functioned exactly how the Mets hoped it would. Juan Soto worked a walk to load the bases. Pete Alonso then made the Marlins pay with a grand slam. The Mets were leading 2-1 before Pete’s grand salami. Juan Soto was the person you wanted up with two on. Pete was person you wanted to break the game open. More of this please!
2. Containing Otto Lopez. What a start for Lopez in 2025! He is slashing .400/.478/.700 over 20 at bats so far this season including his second three hit performance last night against the Mets (3-for-5, HR, K). In 2024 Lopez had only six homeruns over 403 AB’s. He already has two this year. The Mets need an answer for him now, and a week from now when the Marlins travel to Queens.
3. Lindor’s Bat. There has been a lot of talk about the torpedo bats that the Yankees were using against the Brewers last weekend. At some point over the weekend, it was reported that Lindor was also using one of the torpedo bats in Houston. Steve Gelbs reported that Lindor was actually using the torpedo bat a handful of times in 2024, it just wasn’t as “torpedo-y” shaped as it is this year.

Let’s Go Mets!

The momentum is in … Miami?!?

The Marlins are 3-1 this season, beating the Pirates three times on walk-off hits. The 1924 Pirates were the last team to be walked off for the first three losses of the season. The Mets are coming off of a lackluster weekend in Houston where they scored only five runs over three games. The Mets pitching kept them in all three games, just the bats fell short. Does Miami keep rolling? Can the Mets bats wake up?

Things finally clicked for David Peterson in 2024. Over 121 innings spread over 21 starts, Peterson had a 2.90 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.289 WHIP and a 136 ERA+. He also looked dominant in spring training this year, allowing two runs, one earned over 15 2/3 innings, scattering seven hits and seven walks. The Marlins got the better of Peterson last season, tagging him for six runs from 14 hits and six walks over 10 innings. The Marlins have the following career numbers against him:

• Xavier Edwards 1-3, 2 BB, 2 K
• Nick Fortes 3-12, 2 K
• Otto Lopez 1-6, 2B, K
• Dane Myers 1-3, 2B

Cal Quantrill joined the Marlins late in the offseason, signing a one-year contract on February 13th. Over 29 starts in 2024, he tossed 148 1/3 innings with a 4.98 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 1.517 WHIP and a 93 ERA+. He led the league with 69 walks. Despite pitching in Colorado, his road splits were not that much different than his overall numbers (5.04 ERA, 1.427 WHIP, 75 innings). The last time Cal faced the Mets was in 2023, as a member of the Guardians. He allowed three runs from six hits over 5 2/3 innings in that start. The Mets bats have squeaked out the following numbers against Quantrill:

• Pete Alonso 1-6
• Brett Baty 2-3, 2B, HR
• Francisco Lindor 1-3, 2B
• Starling Marte 1-8, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-4, BB, 2 K
• Jose Siri 2-2, 2B
• Mark Vientos 0-3, K
• Jesse Winker 0-3, 3 BB, 3 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Juan Soto vs Cal Quantrill. Soto has led the league in walks in three of the last four seasons. This year he already has four walks leading to a .538 OBP. Cal Quantrill led the league in walks in last season. He walked four batters over 10 2/3 innings this spring. Seems like a recipe for traffic on the base paths!
2. Cooling off the Marlins bats. Over three games this season Juan Soto is the only Mets player with three hits. Nimmo and Torrens are the only hitters with two hits. Through four games this season the Marlins already have three players (Hill, Lopez, Myers) with five hits each. They have a total of six players with three hits or more. Mets pitching has been a strength so far this season and they need stop the momentum that is growing outside of South Beach.
3. Something new in centerfield. The Marlins used to have a seven-story tall home run sculpture in centerfield that actually gave the stadium character, which was removed in 2018 thanks to Derek Jeter. Norwegian Cruise Lines added a sculpture this season that tries to fill that void. Unlike the original home run sculpture which was basically just over the outfield wall, this iteration looks closer to concourse that wraps around the back of the stadium for fans. It looks like smoke stack on a cruise ship and sets off of fire works after a home run. Not as magical as the original, but at least its something. Hopefully the Mets don’t see it in action this week.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Astros face off for the rare Saturday evening rubber game! There was no off-day for the Mets and Astros after Opening Day. Due to scheduling rules around interleague schedules, they are limited to a three game series. Thus, an unusual Sunday off-day.

Last night Juan Soto hit is his first home run as a New York Met. The ball left his bat at 107.3 mph and he knew it was gone immediately. The Mets bats didn’t do much of anything after his solo home run, but didn’t need to thanks to the excellent start by Tylor Megill and a bullpen that held the Astros to three walks, no hits and no runs over the last four innings.

Griffin Canning has gone from around seventh on the Mets depth chart going into the spring training to finding himself on sleeper fantasy baseball lists. Over 14 1/3 innings in spring training, Canning allowed only three hits from 11 hits while striking out a staggering 22 batters. His success this spring came from the Mets wanting him to use his cutter again and to try tossing a sinker. He pitched in 32 games for the Angels in 2024, tossing 171 2/3 innings with a 5.19 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 1.398 WHIP and an 81 ERA+. Playing in the same division as the Astros in 2024, he faced them three times allowing nine runs from 18 hits over 15 2/3 innings while striking out seven. The Astros have the following career numbers against him:

• Jose Altuve 3-13, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Yordan Alvarez 7-13, 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Victor Caratini 0-4, BB
• Yainer Diaz 4-10, HR, K
• Mauricio Dubón 2-5, BB
• Chas McCormick 0-4
• Jake Meyers 3-11, K
• Isaac Paredes 1-5, 2B, 2 K
• Jeremy Peña 2-12, 2B, K
• Brendan Rodgers 1-3, 2B, K
• Christian Walker 4-8, 2 HR, BB, 3 K

Spencer Arrighetti had a solid rookie season for the Astros in 2024. He had a 4.53 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 1.407 WHIP and an 87 ERA+ over 29 games (145 innings). Statcast picked up seven different pitches for Spencer last year who mainly relies on his mid-90s four seamer (40.6% of pitches), curveball (19.9%) and cutter (19.6%). The remaining 20ish percent of his pitches are sweepers and changeups, with very few sinkers and sliders mixed in. This will be his first start against the Mets with the only Mets who have seen him are Jose Siri (0-for-3, 2 K) and Juan Soto (2-for-3, HR).

Three Things To Watch For:

1. PECOTA Runs Scored. The Astros are sixth for in-season runs scored + projected runs scored by PECOTA at 760. The Mets have held them to only four runs scored so far this series. The same could be said about the Mets who are projected second and have also scored only four runs. Will one (or both) of these two teams take a step towards their projected performance tonight?
2. Relievers used on back-to-back days. Max Kranick is the only reliever that has not been used in a game yet. Conditions look right today for someone to get use on back-to-back days. There’s an off day tomorrow, and all of the high leverage arms went yesterday. How does Díaz do if needed for a save situation again today? Yesterday he only needed 15 pitches to get through the ninth inning.
3. Still looking for firsts. The Mets have four players who are still looking for their first hit of 2025: Lindor, Acuña, Baty, Siri and Senger. To be fair, Baty and Senger have combined for a total of three plate appearances. The entire Mets team is still looking for their first stolen base. As of now, the official call on Brandon Nimmo is that he got caught stealing but was safe at second due to an error from the first basemen.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to bounce back after an Opening Day loss yesterday! Framber Valdez and the Astros were able to keep the Mets off the scoreboard for seven innings. There were opportunities for the Mets in the 8th and 9th but they turned two hits and four walks into only one run. While the perfect season may be out of reach for the Mets, they could still go 161-1 with a win tonight!

Tylor Megill is coming off of his best season as a Met. Over 16 games in 2024, Megill tossed 78 innings with a 4.04 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.308 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. These were all career bests, with the exception of WHIP. Can this be the season Megill finally becomes better than a league average pitcher (by ERA+)?

Megill faced the Astros at the height of his struggles last season. He was coming off of a starter where he allowed six runs over three innings. Against the Astros he allowed four runs over 5 1/3 innings from five hits and three walks. The Astros have the following stats against him:

• Jose Altuve 0-3, 2 BB, K
• Yordan Alvarez 1-2, BB, K
• Victor Caratini 0-1
• Yainer Diaz 0-5, 2 K
• Mauricio Dubón 2-4, 2B
• Chas McCormick 0-0, BB
• Jake Meyers 1-2, HR, K
• Isaac Paredes 0-2
• Jeremy Peña 1-3, 2B, BB, K
• Christian Walker 1-3, HR, 2 K

Hunter Brown pitched in 31 games in 2023 and in 2024. In 2023, Brown had a 5.09 ERA, 1.362 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, and an 83 ERA+ over 155 2/3 innings. Last season he had a 3.49 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.271 WHIP and a 113 ERA+ over 170 innings. Brown stepped into the role in 2024 that the Astros thought he would. The last time the Mets faced him though was in 2023 where he allowed six runs from seven hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Brown:

• Pete Alonso 0-3, K
• Brett Baty 1-3, K
• Francisco Lindor 1-3, HR, K
• Starling Marte 1-3
• Brandon Nimmo 0-3, 2 K
• Jose Siri 0-4, BB, 3 K
• Juan Soto 2-5, 2B, K
• Jesse Winker 1-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tylor Megill’s pitch selection. For Megill to finally have a breakout year, he’s going to need to make the best of his pitch selection. Last season he was in the 67th percentile for chase%, 74th for Whiff% and 79th for K%. This is because, according to Baseball Savant and Statcast, he tossed eight different pitches last season. He added in a cutter that he used 14.2% of the time. Let’s see how much of his arsenal is used today!
2. Hitting Runners In Scoring Position. The Mets went 0-for-6 yesterday with runners in scoring position and left 10 batters on base. The Astros were not much better, going 1-for-8 with RISP and left nine batters on base. For the Astros, they could have put the game out of reach early with a big hit as they got Holmes into trouble multiple times. The Mets ended up losing by only two, a big hit in the 8th or 9th and we would be talking about taking the series today.
3. Mark Vientos. Juan Soto worked two walks yesterday. He’s led the league in walks in three of the last four seasons. Pete Alonso walked twice yesterday. Mark Vientos is going to get some major RBI opportunities this season. In 2024, Vientos was fourth on the team with 71 RBI’s, despite playing only 111 games.

Let’s Go Mets!

The New York Mets take the field for the first regular season game of 2025 this afternoon against the Houston Astros. Max Scherzer was told at the 2023 trade deadline that 2024 would be a transition year. Instead, 2024 was one of the wildest rollercoasters ever for the Amazin’s. After starting off 0-5, the Mets went on a mini-run to start the season 12-8. Then the Mets completely fell apart for a month. On June 2nd they were 24-35.

That’s when the magic started. Grimace threw a first pitch. The Mets went on a run. Candelita dropped a chart-topping track. The Mets soared back to life, clinching a spot in the post-season in game one of a back-and-forth double-header in Atlanta. Last season was filled with magical moments.

Francisco Lindor was the engine that pushed the Mets out of the dark depths of the NL East to the NLCS in 2024. He put together arguably the best season for a position player in Mets history. In 2025 he has one of the best hitters in baseball, Juan Soto, hitting right behind him. Let’s get the 2025 story started!

Who had Clay Holmes as the Opening Day starter? The Met signed Clay Holmes believing in his ability to start games. Last season he tossed more than 40 pitches once and more than 30 only four times. You wouldn’t know that looking at his spring training outings. He allowed only two runs from seven hits over 19 1/3 innings spread over five games.

Last season Holmes pitched in 67 games totaling 63 innings with a 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.302 WHIP and a 131 ERA+. He opened his season against the Astros, pitching against them three times between March 28th and March 31st, scattering five hits over 3 innings without allowing a run. The Astros have the following career numbers against him:

• Jose Altuve 1-4
• Yordan Alvarez 2-5, 2B, BB
• Victor Caratini 1-3, 2 BB
• Yainer Diaz 1-3
• Mauricio Dubón 2-6
• Chas McCormick 1-2
• Isaac Paredes 1-6, 5 K
• Jeremy Peña 1-3, 2 K
• Christian Walker 1-2, HR, BB, K

Framber Valdez put together another great season in 2024, making 28 starts totaling 176 1/3 innings with a 2.91 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.106 WHIP and a 136 ERA+. It was his third season in his last four with an ERA+ north of 135. He faced the Mets last season right as the Mets were starting to get hot. The Mets got him for six runs, three earned, over 4 2/3 innings from eight hits and three walks. The Mets have the following career numbers against Valdez:

• Pete Alonso 3-8, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 1-8, 2 BB, K
• Starling Marte 4-15, 2 2B, 4 K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-10, 2B, 3 K
• Jose Siri 1-5, 2B, 3 K
• Juan Soto 2-5, 2 BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-2, BB
• Luis Torrens 2-12, 3 K
• Mark Vientos 1-3, HR, K
• Jesse Winker 2-4

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Juan Soto. The signed a superstar this off-season, coming off his best season by bWAR in his career (7.9, next closest was 7.3 in 2021). There’s a lot to talk about with Juan Soto, and today let’s look how patient he is at the plate. He lead the league in walks in 2021-2023 (145, 135 and 132). Last season (129) he was second to his teammate Aaron Judge (133). Take the crown again in 2025 Soto!
2. Pete Alonso. What a shame it would have been for Pete Alonso to sign with anyone else this off-season. Pete Alonso hit the biggest home run of his career during the Wild Card Series to send the Mets to the Division Series. He enters this season with 226 regular season home runs, 26 behind Darryl Strawberry’s 252. Pete’s pursuit of this milestone will be a major story of 2025.
3. Park Factor. If you look at the last three years, Daikin Park (formerly Minute Maid) has a Park Factor of exactly 100, which means its league average. This is a bit surprising with a park factor of 107 for home runs (which means for players who played at Daikin over the last three seasons and elsewhere, 7% more home runs were observed at Daikin). This number jumps up to 116 if only data from 2024 is considered. I’m curious how the Crawford Boxes in left field impact a pull hitter like Isaac Parades, who the Astros traded for in the off-season.

Let’s Go Mets!