Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
I’m so excited to kick the 2020 series of projections with Pete Alonso! This year we decided to go in alphabetical order, hitters first than pitchers. First in the alphabet is a 2019 non-roster invitee to spring training, Pete Alonso who almost didn’t make the 2020 team out of camp because the Mets were contemplating manipulating his playing time. It’s a good thing they didn’t. Alonso’s call up paid dividends immediately and by playing a whole season he smashed the single season homer record for a New York Met and a rookie with 53, picking up the Home Run Derby title and the Rookie of the Year along the way. He’s already rocked Spring Training this year claiming that his goal is to “be on a float drunk as hell”.
Don’t we all want that? Either for him or ourselves?
Let’s take a look at his amazing 2019 stats and then peak at how different sites think he’ll do in 2020.
2019 Stats: 693 PA, 597 AB, 53 HR, .260/.358/.583, 5.0 WAR, 141 DRC+
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
Looking at the slugging percentage, most projections see a slight, slight drop in power. Which makes sense, it’s hard to break records in back to back years. What’s interesting is who thinks a drop will happen vs who doesn’t. BP tends to be more conservative about back to back performances and they are projecting almost an identical year to last year, putting up the same WAR and almost the same DRC+ compared to other players. ESPN, usually more bullish, is one of the more dampened projections.
Even the worst line from the ultra-conservative on projections baseball reference has Alonso hitting a line that would lead the offense (where they see a significant drop in power they also see a rise in OBP).
The Mets are hoping Alonso carries the offense again. The Mets playoff chances are contingent on the offense being an automatic thing. The projections show a positive sophomore year for Alonso.
Are you ready for Oktoberfest?
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