T.J. Rivera may be one of the more difficult players to project on the Mets this year. In 2017 he performed so well, there was thought that after Cabrera, he could be the future second basemen of the Mets. Then he go injured and needed Tommy John surgery, which opened the door for McNeil who made phenomenal use of the opportunity to play everyday.
2017 Stats: 231 PA, 214 AB, 5 HR, .290/.330/.430, 0.4 WAR, 101 DRC+
Career: .302/.334/.445, 102 DRC+
As a replacement player for the Mets in in 2017, he did quite well. To put his 101 DRC+ in perspective, the Orioles in 2019 have one batter that is projected to have a DRC+ better than 100, so 2017 TJ Rivera would be the second best hitter on the 2019 Orioles.
Rivera has a couple of things in his way right now. Mainly, he’s still not 100%, and after a year of setbacks that’s the last thing he needs. The Mets also traded for JD Davis who is pushing for his bench spot. On top of that, Gavin Cecchini so far in spring has playing hard for a roster spot.
Here’s what computers think TJ will do this year:
(Citations: ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )
Ignore ZiPS for a moment, they don’t factor in estimated playing time. ESPN and Steamer see Rivera basically getting no playing time. BP was so down on playing time that they didn’t project him in the annual. All of the projections see Rivera hitting below his career numbers, but his career numbers are definitely affected by small-sample sizes over two seasons. His OPS isn’t great but is pretty good for the Mets bench, especially compared to last year.
The two questions for Rivera:
- When will he be healthy enough to play?
- When he is healthy, is there room for him on the active roster?
