In January of 2015, I attended the Queens Baseball Convention with guest Wally Backman. Everyone wanted to talk Noah Syndergaard but Backman wanted to talk about Steven Matz. He described the lefty as unhittable. Matz showed brilliance in 2015 although limited by injuries.
Now, who knows with Matz? Last year he tossed back to back scoreless 7 inning games. He also had a terrible year. He struggled in Spring Training. With Vargas coming back soon and if Wheeler fixes himself in Las Vegas, what happens to Matz? Let’s look at what the computers think:
| Steven Matz | ||||||||
| Source | Innings | ERA | FIP | WHIP | K | BB | K/BB | K/9 |
| Baseball Prospectus | 76.6 | 4.1 | 1.33 | 77 | 9.046997 | |||
| ZiPS | 105 | 3.86 | 3.83 | 98 | 35 | 2.8 | 8.4 | |
| Steamer | 119 | 4.01 | 4.02 | 1.3 | 105 | 36 | 2.916667 | 7.941176 |
| ESPN | 121 | 4.69 | 1.36 | 105 | 38 | 2.763158 | 7.809917 | |
| MLB.com | 130 | 3.95 | 1.32 | 115 | 35 | 3.285714 | 7.961538 | |
| Baseball Reference | 106 | 4.42 | 1.33 | 97 | 32 | 3.03125 | 8.235849 | |
| Average: | 109.6 | 4.171667 | 3.925 | 1.328 | 99.5 | 35.2 | 2.959358 | 8.23258 |
| 2017 Stats: | 66.2 | 6.08 | 5.05 | 1.53 | 48 | 19 | 2.526316 | 6.52568 |
They all see last year as a fluke. However a 4.17 ERA, 1.328 WHIP is not what Mets fans expect either from a member of the rotation of aces. ZiPS however is all in on Matz returning to form.
Matz struggled in his first start and draws the Nationals in his second. He hasn’t faced a weak offense yet. It’s too early to write Matz off but disillusionment from the last two seasons has leaked in.
