Seth Lugo was a critical piece to the oft injured 2016 Mets team that made the Wild Card. His curve ball has a ridiculous RPM and he rode that through the end of the 2016 campaign and became the ace for Team Puerto Rico in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. Then the injuries happened and his numbers returned to Earth in 2017, when the Mets needed aces in the rotation.
Coming into this season, Lugo’s roll was uncertain. Does he start? He does he fit in with an injured Vargas, a struggling Matz and a Wheeler with a disastrous spring? Mother nature so far this season has prevented a Lugo start but he has been tremendous out of the pen. Let’s take a look at what the projections models think:
| Seth Lugo | ||||||||
| Source | Innings | ERA | FIP | WHIP | K | BB | K/BB | K/9 |
| Baseball Prospectus | 91 | 4.31 | 1.35 | 81 | 8.010989 | |||
| ZiPS | 199.7 | 4.89 | 4.7 | 98 | 32 | 3.0625 | 4.416625 | |
| Steamer | 71 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 1.31 | 59 | 20 | 2.95 | 7.478873 |
| ESPN | 95 | 5.12 | 1.41 | 80 | 30 | 2.666667 | 7.578947 | |
| MLB.com | 95 | 4.26 | 1.32 | 94 | 42 | 2.238095 | 8.905263 | |
| Baseball Reference | 109 | 4.21 | 1.312 | 94 | 34 | 2.764706 | 7.761468 | |
| Average: | 110.1167 | 4.523333 | 4.52 | 1.3404 | 84.33333 | 31.6 | 2.736394 | 7.358694 |
| 2017 Stats: | 101.3 | 4.71 | 3.95 | 1.372 | 85 | 25 | 3.4 | 7.551826 |
These projections are pretty close to last year’s. They don’t see Lugo going back to his amazing 2016, but they see him pitching a lot like last year. Most of the projections see Lugo as a starter thought. Similar to Gsellman, I think it’s safe to assume that his stats get a lot better in a relief roll as his time on the mound decrease.
A Lugo with that devastating curve out of the pen could be a great change of pace from the flame throwing style of most baseball bullpens now.
