Before the Mets signed Jay Bruce earlier this month, Juan Lagares looked to have an increased role on the team this year. He’s spent the off-season working on his hitting. If Juan Lagares improves his offense just a small amount, he will be a tremendous player by overall war thanks to his DRS. Let’s spend some time looking at his offense stats from last year:
| Juan Lagares | |||||||||
| PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 2016 | 160 | 142 | 15.00 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 0.239 | 0.301 | 0.38 |
| Projections | |||||||||
| MLB.com | 220 | 27.00 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.289 | 0.382 | |
| Steamer | 190 | 19.00 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 0.258 | 0.299 | 0.374 | |
| ZiPS | 364 | 39.00 | 5 | 30 | 7 | 0.251 | 0.291 | 0.361 | |
| ESPN | 13.00 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 0.25 | ||||
| Baseball Prospectus | 191 | 19.00 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 0.255 | 0.296 | 0.373 | |
| NBC Rotoworld | 198 | 25.00 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 0.258 | 0.318 | 0.389 | |
| Rotowire | 286 | 31.00 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 0.259 | 0.298 | 0.378 | |
| FBG 2017 | 306 | 33.00 | 4 | 30 | 7 | 0.253 | |||
| Average | 277.5 | 240 | 25.75 | 3.625 | 22.5 | 5.125 | 0.25425 | 0.2985 | 0.3761667 |
2017 Stats:
94 G, 272 PA, 252 AB, 37 R, 16 2B, 3 HR, .250 BA, .296 OBP, .365 SLG
Thanks to injuries and a logjam of outfielders at the start of the season, Juan Lagares ended up playing exactly the amoutn of time as expected. He hit one homer less than expected, a few points lower in both BA and OBP and about 11 points less in slugging. Baseball Prospectus wins the battle of “did they get OBP correct though?” which is my preferred stat to use.
Depending on Juan’s health this year, and the health of those around him, it is curious to predict both what he will do in 2018 and the role he will have on this team.
