In about a month the focus will be on Spring Training, the Mets roster, hopes, dreams, etc and STAT PROJECTIONS. Wonderful Stat Projections. But do they pan out? Let’s take a walk down memory lane going through last year’s projections and seeing how they stood against the test of time.
| Rene Rivera | |||||||||
| PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 2016 | 2017 | 185 | 12.00 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 0.222 | 0.291 | 0.341 |
| Projections | |||||||||
| MLB.com | 165 | 13.00 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0.224 | 0.289 | 0.321 | |
| Steamer | 138 | 13.00 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0.225 | 0.285 | 0.355 | |
| ZiPS | 277 | 21.00 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 0.226 | 0.281 | 0.341 | |
| ESPN | 18.00 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 0.221 | ||||
| Baseball Prospectus | 123 | 11.00 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0.225 | 0.276 | 0.348 | |
| NBC Rotoworld | 228 | 17.00 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0.211 | 0.269 | 0.329 | |
| Average | 200 | 177 | 15.5 | 4.8333333 | 22.166667 | 0.1666667 | 0.222 | 0.28 | 0.3388 |
His actual numbers:
74 G, 237 PA, 218 AB, 23 R, 55 H, 9 2B, 10 HR, 35 RBI, .252 BA, .305 OBP, .431 SLG
Rene Rivera, now an Angel, split time with the Mets and the Cubs last year. His slash line performed well. He hit 30 points above the projection, 25 points above OBP and almost 100 points better in slugging. The latter is due to him doubling homers vs what was projected. He was also given considerably more playing time than projected.
When looking at projections, the computers all handled Rene about the same, so they all failed about the same.
Rene is now an Angel. He would have been nice to bring back but he also doesn’t fit long or short term as a Met. (Short term only if the Mets went all in for this upcoming season).
