Juan Lagares is another player who is difficult to project. Most computers spat out projections before the Mets signed Cespedes, which changes Lagares playing time tremendously. Before that, he was looking at a 60/40 spit with de Aza, where the starts could be about 50/50 and Lagares getting the overall playing advantage due to late inning substitutions. Lagares will still be the late inning guy, essentially taking over for Conforto (with Cespedes then moving over). He wasn’t bad last year, but he wasn’t close to his 2014 numbers. Let’s take a look to what the computers think he’ll put up next year:
| Player: | Juan Lagares | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Source: | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| MLB.com | 200 | 22 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.305 | 0.305 | 0.69 |
| Steamer | 305 | 29 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 0.262 | 0.301 | 0.38 | 0.681 |
| ESPN | 272 | 31 | 3 | 26 | 5 | 0.257 | 0.292 | 0.357 | 0.698 |
| ZiPS | 505 | 55 | 6 | 49 | 11 | 0.261 | 0.297 | 0.369 | 0.666 |
| PECOTA (BP) | 206 | 23 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 0.255 | 0.293 | 0.371 | 0.664 |
| Sporting News | 405 | 42 | 4 | 37 | 9 | 0.264 | 0.299 | 0.36 | 0.659 |
| Baseball America | 496 | 56 | 9 | 52 | 10 | 0.264 | 0.306 | 0.387 | 0.693 |
| Rotowire | 425 | 45 | 8 | 42 | 9 | 0.264 | 0.298 | 0.391 | 0.689 |
| MLB Yearbook | 416 | 44 | 5 | 42 | 9 | 0.264 | 0.3 | 0.368 | 0.668 |
| AVERAGE: | 358.8888889 | 38.55555556 | 5.111111111 | 35.22222222 | 7.333333333 | 0.262333333 | 0.299 | 0.365333333 | 0.678666667 |
As noted before, I think the playing time here is overdone. I do agree with the predictions of uptick in average and getting on base over 2015 numbers, this is probably more accurate. Playing time is key for Lagares.
Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual
