Jacob deGrom ended 2014 with the rookie of the year award. At the start of 2014, he was behind Montero on the depth chart, but then blossomed overnight. Would he repeat in 2015? Here is what the computers thought before the season:
PECOTA (BP): 8-9, 25 G, 147.2 IP, 126 K, 42 BB, 1.19 WHIP, 3.47 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-8, 144 IP, 121 K, 41 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.56 ERA
MLB.com: 12-8, 180 IP, 161 K, 49 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
ZiPS: 29 G, 174.1 IP, 159 K, 53 BB, 3.30 ERA
Steamer: 10-10, 29 G, 163.0 IP, 145 K, 52 BB, 3.92 ERA
ESPN: 12-9, 177 K, 1.18 WHIP, 3.25 ERA
Average: 10.2 – 8.8, 27.6 G, 161.2 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 3.44 ERA
(Original post here)
And his actual 2015 numbers:
14-8, 30 G, 191 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.54 ERA.
The computers thought deGrom’s 2.69 ERA was not repeatable in 2015. The lowest ERA he was projected to get was 3.15 MLB.com, which generally projects in the player’s favor. Instead deGrom went out and put up a 2.54 ERA, thus cementing the Mets rotation as a staff of aces. The computers wanted him to have a sophomore slump, but that was not in the cards.
