The key for the 2015 Mets season will be David Wright. How much can he bounce back? Last year the captain put up the following numbers:
2014: 586 PA, 54 R, 30 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 8 SB, .269 BA, .324 OBP
And the computers feel David Wright will do the following in 2015:
PECOTA (BP): 532 PA, 63 R, 27 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 11 SB, .268 BA, .343 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 535 AB, 73 R, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 13 SB, .267 BA, .342 OBP
MLB.com: 524 AB, 74 R, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 13 SB, .288 BA, .364 OBP
ZiPS: 558 PA, 498 AB, 67 R, 28 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .275 BA, .346 OBP
Steamer: 574 PA, 511 AB, 65 R, 29 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 9 SB, .274 BA, .345 OBP
ESPN: .273 BA, 63 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 11 SB
Average: 555 PA, 517 AB, 67.5 R, 28 2B, 2.3 3B, 15.8 HR, 68.8 RBI, 11.3 SB, .274 BA, .348 OBP
The only areas where the computers see Wright improving is his OBP (significant) and runs scored (also a significant amount). There is an improvement over homers to nearly 16, or twice the amount he hit last year, but that is still a drop off from the numbers you would hope to see from Wright. Also the RBI amounts are also down.
If the Mets are really going to make a run for it this year, Wright will need to hit closer to 20 homers, 80 RBI’s and .290. I don’t think that’s out of the question.
