Many Baseball Analysts have been saying for the majority of the off-season that in order for the Mets to do well in 2015, they need bounce back years from David Wright and today’s projection player, Curtis Granderson. Granderson wasn’t terrible last year, but he wasn’t necessarily good either. This year he’s been reunited with Kevin Long and there are reasons to hope that he’ll have a more Granderson year.
2014 Stats: 654 PA, 73 R, 27 2B, 2 3B, 20 HR, 66 RBI, .227 BA, .326 OBP
And let’s take a look at the projections:
PECOTA (BP): 538 PA, 74 R, 18 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 63 RBI, .227 BA, .315 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 515 AB, 73 R, 24 HR, 77 RBI, .227 BA, .316 OBP
MLB.com: 511 AB, 72 R, 22 HR, 66 RBI, .237 BA, .322 OBP
ZiPS: 521 PA, 71 R, 19 2B, 3 2B, 21 HR, 60 RBI, .231 BA, .319 OBP
Steamer: 535 PA, 465 BA, 60 R, 20 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 56 RBI, .222 BA, .313 OBP
ESPN: .231 BA, 77 R, 23 HR, 65 RBI
Average: 531 PA, 497 AB, 71 R, 19 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 64.5 RBI, .229 BA, .317 OBP
From a quick look, it looks like the models have a modest rise in homers, a significant drop in doubles (so something will have to give, that generally doesn’t split like) and essentially a constant BA and a drop in OBP. There is also a big drop in Plate Appearances. I’m not sure why that is though. It’s either he had an abnormally high PA last year or maybe the Mets rotate a little more in the OF with Mayberry, but I think its more the former.
In all honesty, I would be disappointed with the average stat line out of Curtis Granderson, but it’s way better than a regression.
