Last year was the tale of two seasons for d’Arnaud. He struggled immensely at the start of the season, was sent down the minors, and then came back strong. If he can repeat the second half of the season again, the Mets will be in good shape. Let’s take a look at the numbers he put it up:
2014 Stats: 421 AB, 48 R, 22 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 41 RBI, .242 BA, .302 OBP
And now let’s look at how the computers think d’Arnaud will respond in 2015:
PECOTA (BP): 360 PA, 39 R, 18 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 46 RBI, .251 BA, .315 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 504 AB, 63 R, 19 HR, 68 RBI, .252 BA, .318 OBP
MLB.com: 435 AB, 54 R, 15 HR, 58 RBI, .253 BA, .309 OBP
ZiPS: 399 PA, 50 R, 20 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 49 RBI, .255 BA, .313 OBP
Steamer: 497 PA, 52 R, 24 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, .252 BA, .311 OBP
ESPN: .255 BA, 57 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI
Average: 418.7 PA, 470 AB, 52.5 R, 20.6 2B, 1.7 3B, 15.8 HR, 55.7 RBI, .253 BA, .313 OBP
It looks like the computers see a significant improvement in batting average and on-base percentage for next year. What I’m more surprised about is the different predictions for power numbers, ranging for a decrease down to 12 homers and as high as 19 homers. I would love to see some of these higher numbers come true.
