Jon Niese is the veteran of the starting rotation in the sense that he’s been with the Mets the longest (Colon is really the veteran). The sinker pitcher was technically on the trading block over the last couple of off-seasons, but Blue Jays picked Dickey, and the Mets couldn’t move Gee this past season, let alone Niese. Anyway, this season, there is zero pressure on Niese to be the ace of the staff between Harvey, deGrom coming off of a rookie of the year season, Wheeler’s second full season and the eventual debut of Syndergaard. Here is Niese’s 2014 stat lines:
2014 Stats: 9-11, 30 G, 187.2 IP, 138 K, 45 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.40 ERA
And here’s what the computers think 2015 will bring:
PECOTA (BP): 8-10, 26 G, 155 IP, 128 K, 40 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.85 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 10-11, 171.0 IP, 139 K, 43 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.89 ERA
MLB.com: 10-12, 183.0 IP, 132 K, 48 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.69 ERA
ZiPS: 28 G, 171.2 IP, 132 K, 46 BB, 3.77 ERA
Steamer: 9-11, 29 G, 173.0 IP, 125 K, 47 BB, 4.07 ERA
ESPN: 11-9, 140 K, 1.23 WHIP, 3.72 ERA
Average: 9.6-10.6, 27.7 G, 170.2 IP, 132.7 K, 44.8 BB, 1.25 WHIP, 3.83 ERA
It looks like the computers are projecting a slight regression in ERA and an improvement in WHIP. After reading BP’s comments, I wonder if this is due how computers look at how defense behind Niese is going to work, if they are worried about Tejada, Murphy and Duda handling the groundballs that Niese will produce.
