Wilmer Flores presents a common problem the Mets have had over the last couple of seasons. Flores is slightly better than average, exactly average or maybe a bit below average, which is why it is difficult to replace him. There are no players on the Free Agent market that are significantly better than Flores is or could be next season, so spending the money there doesn’t make sense, plus there is always the chance that Flores breaks out. The only upgrade options exist in trade.
In his last 27 games of the season, he hit .282, with a .318 OBP and a .485 SLG while scattering 12 extrabase hits over 29 total hits, including 4 homers. If he had 500 AB’s in the season, it would be around 19-20 homers. Obviously this would be excellent, and also crazy to think he could do this all season.
The real reason I’m tepid on Flores is actually because of Ruben Tejada. I know this is completely illogical but it’s true. Ruben had huge shoes to fill 2012 from Jose Reyes. In his first full season he was able to keep up the .280+ BA that he had from being a part-time player in 2011. While his OBP dropped about 30 points, it was still at .333 and he was able to increase his slugging. At the time he was only 22 and it looked like the Mets were going to be alright without Reyes. No one expected Tejada to be an All-Star but with the 2011/2012 season he was projecting to be an above average hitter at shortstop.
And then 2013 happened. In an injury shortened season, his average and his OBP dropped 80 points, and his slugging dropped 90 points. He was a shade of what he was before. Going into 2014, the hope was that 2013 was a fluke and he would return to his 2011/2012 form. He did slightly better in 2014 hitting .237 BA, somehow posting the second career high in OBP at .342 but his second lowest slugging at .310. Over the last four years he hasn’t been consistent.
This has nothing directly to do with Flores but back in 2013 I was convinced that Tejada would have a breakout season. I understand that Flores has a higher ceiling than Tejada but I’m afraid if I anticipate a breakout season from Flores, that I’m thinking more with my emotions than my brain. I want Flores to do well. I really do, but with everything else working in the Mets direction this year, I rather overpay for someone at shortstop that I don’t need to roll a dice on to see if he has a good season.
