As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
Wheeler took some key steps in 2014 and he looks to be a critical part of the 2015 Mets. Wheeler’s season should be difficult for computers to project because 2014 was his first full season in the majors, and second seasons are notorious difficult at least on the human side to project. Let’s see how the programs projected his 2014 season:
2014 Projection:
ESPN: 32 G, 32 GS, 188.0 IP, 69 BB, 161 K, 13 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
MLB: 170.0 IP, 76 BB, 144 K, 10-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Steamer: 31 G, 31 GS, 192.0 IP, 11-12, 4.11 ERA
Oliver: 26 G, 26 GS, 146.0 IP, 9-7, 3.77 ERA
PECOTA: 26 G, 26 GS, 137.7 IP, 7.4-11.6, 61 BB, 130 K, 3.77 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Average: 28.75 G, 28.75 GS, 166.7 IP, 68.6 BB, 145 K, 10-10, 3.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
2014 Actual:
32 G, 32 GS, 185.1 IP, 79 BB, 187 K, 11-11, 3.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
The models were close on some stats (record, WHIP), and gave him better BB numbers. He did way better than the models in ERA and strikeouts and overall he had a successful sophomore season. Even though he posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 2013, his average projections would have been a good 2014. His actual numbers were a nice exclamation point for the 2014 season and have set up high hopes for the 2015 season.
