As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
In what feels like a century ago, Terry Collins was debating an Outfield lineup that had Lagares in a rotation, with concerns for his bat. Many people, myself included, feel that Juan Lagares needed to be in the lineup every day, so we poured over projections. Let’s see how the projections did and how they compared to his actual states:
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 258 AB, 24 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 6 SB, .240 BA, .281 OBP, .345 SLG
MLB: 370 AB, 40 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 8 SB, .249 BA, .303 OBP, .351 SLG
Steamer: 428 PA, 39 R, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 9 SB, .254 BA, .295 OBP, .365 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 64 R, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 13 SB, .259 BA, .297 OBP, .355 SLG
PECOTA: 440 PA, 411 AB, 46 R, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .249 BA, .285 OBP, .354 SLG
Average: 489 PA, 346 AB, 42.6 R, 4.8 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .250 BA, .292 OBP, .354 SLG
2014 Actual:
452 PA, 416 AB, 46 R, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB, .281 BA, .321 OBP, .382 SLG
Lagares stepped up last year and showed that his bat, although lacking homer power, had some pop, could drag out hits and complement his glove. His averages were all considerably better than projections. I’m curious to see how the 2015 projections feel he will do.
