Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.
Juan Lagares is my pick for center field because of his defense. However, TC is being offensively minded and Lagares has options, so he could easily see himself as the odd man out. For him to stay, he will need to produce with the bat. While I have visions of Lagares, Granderson and Chris Young running a great outfield, I understand that my views on that are minority. On March 5th and 6th we will look at the projections for both Eric Young and Chris Young, today lets focus on a player who could have / should have won a gold glove for defense last year, Lagares:
2013: 392 AB, 35 R, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB, .242 BA, .281 OBP, .352 SLG
ESPN: 258 AB, 24 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 6 SB, .240 BA, .281 OBP, .345 SLG
MLB: 370 AB, 40 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 8 SB, .249 BA, .303 OBP, .351 SLG
Steamer: 428 PA, 39 R, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 9 SB, .254 BA, .295 OBP, .365 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 64 R, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 13 SB, .259 BA, .297 OBP, .355 SLG
PECOTA: 440 PA, 411 AB, 46 R, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .249 BA, .285 OBP, .354 SLG
Average: 489 PA, 346 AB, 42.6 R, 4.8 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .250 BA, .292 OBP, .354 SLG
The computers are projecting essentially the same out of Lagares. His defense is strong, so it covers for the below average offense. He is young and has the possibility to do better than these numbers, however the Mets other options are statistically speaking, significantly better than Lagares, so it will be interesting how this plays out.
