Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.
Today, tomorrow and the day after, we’ll look at the three likely candidates for significant play time at first base: Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and Josh Satin, starting with the most likely to get the job, Ike Davis. Short story about Davis if you’ve been under a rock for the last two years, starts off slow and then gets it together late. 2012 was better than 2013 as he was able to get it together in a big way at the end of the season. There was a lot of talk about moving him this off-season, but that didn’t happen. Anyway, he’s here, still has a lot of potential, and is scheduled to take a lot of AB’s this spring. Lets take a look at his projections:
2013: 317 AB, 37 R, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 4 SB, .205 BA, .326 OBP, .334 SLG
ESPN: 441 AB, 64 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .234 BA, .339 OBP, .422 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 409 PA, 47 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, .238 BA, .340 OBP, .439 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 68 R, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 3 SB, .216 BA, .327 OBP, .398 SLGPECOTA: 472 PA, 410 AB, 57 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 2 SB, .236 BA, .330 OBP, .428 SLG
Average: 493.7 PA, 417 AB, 57.2 R, 18.6 HR, 62.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .234 BA, .336 OBP, .418 SLG
The computers and projecting a slight bounce back in Davis’s stats and are also projecting him to split time at first place. The question is will he steadily put these numbers up all season or will he boom and bust like he has in his career. If the latter is the case, which it probably will be, if the boom is longer than the bust, then he could easily break these projections on the high side.
