This is the tough part for the Mets. Up to this point the PECOTA and MLB.com projections for the Mets offense next season have been positive. If the candidates for the Mets OF can cut a good percentage into last year’s production, then the Mets might have comparable numbers to last year.
First like yesterday, let’s roll a couple of players who are no longer with the Mets into one line to derive numbers. The numbers the Mets need to really pick up are from Hairston more so than Bay.
Hairston: .263 BA, 52, R, 25 2B, 20 HR, 8 SB
Bay: .165 BA, 21 R, 2 2B, 8 HR, 5 SB
Torres: .230 BA, 47 R, 17 2B, 3 HR, 13 SB
2012 Lost OF: 120 R, 71 2B, 31 HR, 26 SB
Because of all of the question marks with the Mets OF, we are going to do the next section different than the previous three. Usually we go through each player, look at their 2012 stats, their PECOTA projections for 2012 and 2013 followed by MLB.com. Since there are so many people who have played OF and can play OF, we are going to do this in sets. Here we are going to go through the 2012 stats of players who were with us last year. Then we will go over the PECOTA’s for next year and then MLB.com for next year. Finally we’ll total everything up and then add it to the running total. Also, I realized I skipped over Justin Turner earlier, so I’ll add him here.
2012 Stats of Current Mets
Turner: .269 BA, 20 R, 13 2B, 2 HR, 1 SB
Baxter: .263 BA, 26 R, 14 2B, 3 HR, 5 SB
Valdespin: .241 BA, 46 R, 9 2B, 8 HR, 10 SB
Kirk: .252 BA, 40 R, 12 2B, 7 HR, 4 SB
Duda: .239 BA, 43 R, 15 2B, 15 HR, 1 SB
2012 Remain OF: 175 R, 63 2B, 35 HR, 21 SB
2012 Total Mets OF: 295 R, 134 2B, 66 HR, 47 SB
Individual Avg Mets OF: 98 R, 45 2B, 22 HR, 16 SB
The above isn’t that bad for an OF last year that was all over the place, but it was in large part due to Hairston. Let’s do the same for 2013 Mets PECOTA projections.
2013 PECOTA Projections:
Duda: .251 BA, 48 R, 19 2B, 15 HR, 1 SB
Kirk: .235 BA, 39 R, 16 2B, 9 HR, 6 SB
Valdespin: .246 BA, 38 R, 12 2B, 8 HR, 17 SB
Baxter: .248 BA, 57 R, 21 2B, 10 HR, 10 SB
Turner: .259 BA, 29 R, 15 2B, 4 HR, 3 SB
Cowgill: .239 BA, 37 R, 15 2B, 7 HR, 9 SB
Byrd: .259 BA, 15 R, 8 2B, 3 HR, 1 SB
den Dekker: .230 BA, 35 R, 10 2B, 6 HR, 9 SB
2013 PECOTA Mets OF: 298 R, 116 2B, 66 HR, 56 SB
Individual Avg Mets OF: 99 R, 39 2B, 22 HR, 19 SB
2013 MLB.com Projections:
Duda: .257 BA, 50 R, 16 HR, 1 SB
Kirk: .258 BA, 53 R, 12 HR, 8 SB
Valdespin: .252 BA, 32 R, 6 HR, 13 SB
Baxter: .237 BA, 46 R, 5 HR, 9 SB
Turner: .263 BA, 18 R, 1 HR, 3 SB
Cowgill: NO PROJECTIONS
Byrd: .250 BA, 26 R, 5 HR, 3 SB
den Dekker: NO PROJECTIONS
2013 MLB.com Mets OF: 225 R, 45 HR, 37 SB
Individual Avg Mets OF: 75 R, 15 HR, 12 SB
The MLB.com projections are probably closer to what we would see for each OF for the Mets. PECOTA scaled back the AB’s for everyone but it still may be a bit high. However, these numbers, MLB.com and PECOTA are not as bad as I thought they would be. Let’s update our running score card:
2012: 131 HR, 606 R, 287 2B, 76 SB
2013 PECOTA: 152 HR, 639 R, 266 2B, 89 SB
2013 MLB.com: 125 HR, 578 R, 70 SB
Here’s the kicker. MLB.com projects the offense to be a little worse, PECOTA projects the offense to be a little better, where the difference looks to be due to the two projections not available for MLB.com. The offense numbers are not good, but they aren’t terrible. If anyone ends up playing better than the projection, then the Mets weakness won’t be a killer.
It looks like the offense will need the bullpen, and the bullpen looks to be much better this year than last year. This could be enough to give the Mets a chance to push towards .500. These numbers also suggest that if the Mets splurge next season on one or two OF’s, that could be enough to turn this team completely around.
