Every year I’m shocked with how much money teams spend in the off season for players to improve their team. Almost every time there is a big player who signs a big contract the analysis is the same:
“This will help the team in the short term, but hurt them in the long term”
Let’s see how true that is. The list below is comprised of players who signed in 2012 with a big contract, and how their team ended up:
– Heath Bell, 27 Million, Marlins – 5th Place NL East
– Carlos Beltran, 26 Million, Cardinals – Wild Card Winner, Lost in NLCS
– Mark Buehrle, 58 Million, Marlins – 5th Place NL East
– Prince Fielder, 214 Million, Tigers – Division Champion, AL Pennant
– David Ortiz, 15 Million, Red Sox – 5th Place AL East
– Papelbon, 50 Million, Phillies – 3rd Place NL East
– Albert Pujols, 247 Million, Angels – 3rd Place AL West
– Aramis Ramirez, 36 Million, Brewers – 3rd Place NL Central
– Jose Reyes, 106 Million, Marlins – 5th Place NL East
– Rollins, 38 Million, Phillies – 3rd Place NL East
– CC Sabathia, 122 Million, Yankees – Division Champion, Lost ALCS
– CJ Wilson, 78 Million, Angels – 3rd Place AL West
It’s hard from the above to make any form of conclusion from the above list mainly because of the quote above about short term vs long term. So let’s expand it 2011 Off Season teams spending money:
– Adrian Beltre, 80 Million, Rangers – Division Champion (11), AL Pennant (11), Wild Card Champion (12)
– Carl Crawford, 142 Million, Red Sox – 3rd Place AL East (11), 5th Place AL East (12), Traded Mid Season (12)
– Adam Dunn, 56 Million, White Sox – 3rd Place AL Central (11), 2nd Place AL Central (12)
– Derek Jeter, 51 Million, Yankees, Division Champions (11), Division Champions (12)
– Paul Konerko, 38 Million, White Sox, 3rd Place AL Central (11), 2nd Place AL Central (12)
– Cliff Lee, 120 Million, Phillies, Division Champions (11), 3rd Place NL East (12)
– Victor Martinez, 40 Million, Tigers – Division Champions (11), Division Champions (12), AL Pennant (12)
– Mariano Rivera, 30 Million, Yankees – Division Champions (11), Division Champions (12)
– Rafael Soriano, 35 Million, Yankees – Division Champions (11), Division Champions (12)
– Jason Werth, 126 Million, Nationals – 3rd Place NL East (11), Division Champions (12)
– Ted Lilly, 33 Million, Dodgers – 3rd Place NL West (11), 2nd Place NL West (12)
From this list, only the Red Sox, White Sox and Dodgers were teams that spent a lot of money to bring in a large contract, and then not make the playoffs for two years. So it looks like in a 2 year retrospective, spending money on large contracts does make a difference about short term chances of making the playoffs, which isn’t too surprising. Now let’s look at the 2013 contracts:
– Zach Greinke, 147 Million, Dodgers
– Josh Hamilton, 125 Million, Angels
– Edwin Jackson, 52 Million, Cubs
– Mike Napoli, 39 Million, Red Sox
– Angel Pagan, 40 Million, Giants
– Anibal Sanchez, 80 Million, Tigers
– Nick Swisher, 56 Million, Indians
– B.J. Upton, 75 Million, Braves
– Shane Victorino, 39 Million, Red Sox
Now of course all of these lists do not include extensions. Looking at the three lists, there really isn’t too much of a difference of money spent (minus the two mega contracts last year) but the real difference is the quality of player. Last year there were some real high quality free agents, this year’s free agents not so much. The market adjusted and you now have players taking home contracts and years guaranteed way above what they would have in other markets.
Just some food for thought.
