Back when the Two – Wild Card system for Major League Baseball was proposed, there wasn’t a lot of discussion about the consequence at the trade deadline, but now we are living it and discussing it.
The Wild Card spot allowed for a lot more teams to be buyers in July, and by adding a second Wild Card spot, a lot more teams are buyers. For example, with one Wild Card spot, would the Marlins be buyers? Maybe? Probably not. However now they are.
There’s another side to this as well. Well established division leaders are now buyers too. They were buyers in the past, but there is so much more incentive to be a buyer because the division leader gets an entire series in the playoff while the wild card teams have a sudden death play in.
So, naturally as baseball economics go, the price for rental players is going up. Seattle is a great example. Jason Vargas would not be demanding a high package from the Mariners if there was one wild card spot, but now that their our two spots and more buyers, the Mariners can demand more prospects. MLB Trade Rumors made note of this today when they said that the Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates, Cardinals, and Tigers are all interested.
By comparison this would mean that a package for Garza or Greinke would cost a lot more, however how much more do teams have? I think it is safe to say that this new Wild Card system will drive the prices in trades for all players up, but will have more of an effect on trades for players like Vargas than Greinke.
Overall, in my opinion, this is good for baseball. It provides a new cushion of competitive balance. The last several years with the Astros and Phillies has almost been highway robbery with some of the players going into Philly and what the Astros got in return. Hopefully with this new system, a team like Houston would get a larger package or a package with a better set of returns to have a better shot of being competitive later on.
