So as you all have probably heard, Benson out for the year. Now, being an Oriole fan (second to the Mets, the Mets are still #1 in my heart) i am very depressed about this news, Benson was crucial for the team this year for even having a longshot at 3rd place. So here is the sorry conclusion, the orioles for one, have to realy more on jaret wright to perform well and at the same time have to find someone. That someone might just be Trax, which in that case, Im not looking foward to go to those games…they'll take forever.
Now about M Cabera, as reported on mlbtraderumors.com, the Marlins are mad at Caberera for not being at their fanfest. Miguel is mad about the arbritation case going on between them…There is more to this story basically saying that the Marlins have no respect to or for their players.
Now on for some stats analysis. So in previous posts I walked over the probability for DWright to get a certain number of hits in a ball game and the probability of his first hig coming in a certain number of AB's. So now I'm going to apply those same processes for finding out the probability for DWright and Beltran and hitting HR's in a game.
So lets Look at Beltran. Last year was a record year for him. In 510 AB, he hit 41 HR
That means his HRAVG would be .080 (Homerun Average)
Now the probability of Beltran hitting exactly one HR in a game (with 5 AB) is:
Binompdf(5,.080,5) = .287 or 28.7% chance
Here is the probability of Beltran breaking the single game HR record, which would be launching 5 HR
Binompdf(5,.080,5) = .00000328 or a .000328% chance
Now, to show how successful Beltran was last year, lets look at his career stats
In 4559 AB, he has hit 203 HR making his HRAVG .045
Now using these numbers, we can determine the probability for Beltran based on lifetime stats, to hit 1 OR more Homeruns per game based on a 5 AB game.
1 – Binomcdf(5,.045,0) = .207 or 20.7%
So out of 162 games, in 20.7%, or about 34 games, Beltran will hit 1 or more homeruns per game, this stat would be a lot higher using his current latest, last season numbers.
Later I will do a similar analysis for DWright, but in that analysis, I will compare hit probabilities to HR probabilities, to put the numbers in perspective and easier to understand…and yeah im gonna do those other things I said i would
