We all know that to some degree, the MLB Draft is a bit of a crap shoot. However a team's first round pick should at least make it to the majors, right? Here I am not concerned with whether or not the first round player was effective once he came up, I just want to know if the player actually made it to the majors. The other ground rule for this study is that I am including the supplemental first round as first round picks. Below is a graph that looks at percentage of players that made it to the majors:
And the Raw Data:
| Made It | Picks | Season | Percentage |
| 23 | 35 | 1996 | 0.657143 |
| 31 | 52 | 1997 | 0.596154 |
| 30 | 43 | 1998 | 0.697674 |
| 23 | 51 | 1999 | 0.45098 |
| 24 | 40 | 2000 | 0.6 |
| 26 | 44 | 2001 | 0.590909 |
| 27 | 41 | 2002 | 0.658537 |
| 26 | 37 | 2003 | 0.702703 |
| 27 | 41 | 2004 | 0.658537 |
| 35 | 48 | 2005 | 0.729167 |
Notable Draft Picks that didn't make it:
2005: Wade Townsend 8th pick (Rays). Brandon Snyder 12th pick (Orioles).
2004: Matthew Bush 1st overall pick (Padres)
2003: Kyle Sleeth 3rd pick (Tigers)
2002: Christopher Gruler 3rd pick (Reds)
2001: Josh Karp 6th pick (Expos). Chris Smith 7th pick (Orioles)
2000: Mike Stodolka 4th pick (Royals)
1999: Corey Myers 4th pick (Dbacks), BJ Garbe 5th pick (Twins), Josh Girdley 6th pick (Expos)
1998: Ryan Millers 6th pick (Twins)
1997: Geoff Goetz 6th pick (Mets)
1996: Matt White 7th pick (Giants), Chad Green 8th pick (Brewers)
2004: Matthew Bush 1st overall pick (Padres)
2003: Kyle Sleeth 3rd pick (Tigers)
2002: Christopher Gruler 3rd pick (Reds)
2001: Josh Karp 6th pick (Expos). Chris Smith 7th pick (Orioles)
2000: Mike Stodolka 4th pick (Royals)
1999: Corey Myers 4th pick (Dbacks), BJ Garbe 5th pick (Twins), Josh Girdley 6th pick (Expos)
1998: Ryan Millers 6th pick (Twins)
1997: Geoff Goetz 6th pick (Mets)
1996: Matt White 7th pick (Giants), Chad Green 8th pick (Brewers)
So I'm going to be careful about drawing conclusions from the graph but a few things stick out. First in the 10 year stretch from 1996 to 2005, no season has had more than 72% of the player make it to the majors. There also seems to be a trend of more players making it to the majors in recent years. This probably means one of two things. Either draft reports are getting better, so the better players are being drafted in the first round. Or, teams are more likely to rush players to the majors, meaning poor ability players are actually playing in the majors where in the past they may not have. Most likely, it is a combination of both situations.
