The Mets look to win a crucial rubber game this afternoon against a struggling Cardinals squad. The Mets came close yesterday but couldn’t complete the comeback. After a lead-off homer from Brandon Nimmo, the Cardinals were able to hit a couple of homers and take the lead 4-1. Luis Guillorme hit a crucial two-run homer to bring it to 4-3, but the Mets bats fell flat late with the wind blowing into the stadium, knocking down some hard hit balls and the hopes to take the game.
Carlos Carrasco looks to get the Mets on the right path today. Over eight starts and 41 innings this season, Carrasco has a 5.71 ERA, 6.24 FIP, 1.463 WHIP and a 73 ERA+. Carrasco is coming off of a shorter start where he was able to keep the Pirates to only two runs despite allowing six hits and three walks. It was his third start in his last four where he allowed two runs or fewer. The Cardinals have the following career numbers against Carrasco:
- Willson Contreras 2-9, 3 K
- Tommy Edman 2-6, 2B, 2 K
- Paul Goldschmidt 3-6, 2B
- Paul DeJong 0-5, 2 K
- Tyler O’Neill 1-5, 2 K
- Nolan Arenado 2-2, BB
- Dylan Carlson 0-1, BB
Matthew Liberatore gets the start for the Cards this afternoon. He has pitched in five games, four starts this year totaling 21 innings. He has a 5.14 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 1.571 WHIP and an 85 ERA+. That being said he he’s coming off of one his stronger starts against the Giants where he allowed two runs from seven hits and two walks over six innings. There is no one on the Mets roster who has seen Liberatore in a major league game before.
Three Things To Watch For:
- Can Carrasco keep the ball in the park? Homers hurt the Mets in yesterday’s game, and homers have been Carrasco weak point this season. He’s only had one start where he he hasn’t allowed a homer. Even in his good starts, he’s allowed solo homers. The Cardinals are struggling in a lot of different ways, but not with the long ball. They have hit 96 as a team, which is good for sixth in the league.
- Brandon Nimmo is in the red. If you look up Nimmo’s Savant Page, you’ll see a lot of red. Nimmo is in the 85th percentile for average exit velocity, 83rd for hard hit percentage and 82nd in xwOBA. Nimmo’s signature skill, his eye, comes through in his chase rate sitting in the 92nd percentile.
- Where is Mark Vientos? Vientos’ playing time has fallen off of a cliff this past week, especially when it’s combined with the Mets two off days during the week. He played on June ninth, sat on the tenth, and then got a start on the 11th. He sat again until the 14th and hasn’t played since.
Let’s Go Mets!
