The Mets look to bounce back after an Opening Day loss yesterday! Framber Valdez and the Astros were able to keep the Mets off the scoreboard for seven innings. There were opportunities for the Mets in the 8th and 9th but they turned two hits and four walks into only one run. While the perfect season may be out of reach for the Mets, they could still go 161-1 with a win tonight!
Tylor Megill is coming off of his best season as a Met. Over 16 games in 2024, Megill tossed 78 innings with a 4.04 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.308 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. These were all career bests, with the exception of WHIP. Can this be the season Megill finally becomes better than a league average pitcher (by ERA+)?
Megill faced the Astros at the height of his struggles last season. He was coming off of a starter where he allowed six runs over three innings. Against the Astros he allowed four runs over 5 1/3 innings from five hits and three walks. The Astros have the following stats against him:
- Jose Altuve 0-3, 2 BB, K
- Yordan Alvarez 1-2, BB, K
- Victor Caratini 0-1
- Yainer Diaz 0-5, 2 K
- Mauricio Dubón 2-4, 2B
- Chas McCormick 0-0, BB
- Jake Meyers 1-2, HR, K
- Isaac Paredes 0-2
- Jeremy Peña 1-3, 2B, BB, K
- Christian Walker 1-3, HR, 2 K
Hunter Brown pitched in 31 games in 2023 and in 2024. In 2023, Brown had a 5.09 ERA, 1.362 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, and an 83 ERA+ over 155 2/3 innings. Last season he had a 3.49 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.271 WHIP and a 113 ERA+ over 170 innings. Brown stepped into the role in 2024 that the Astros thought he would. The last time the Mets faced him though was in 2023 where he allowed six runs from seven hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Brown:
- Pete Alonso 0-3, K
- Brett Baty 1-3, K
- Francisco Lindor 1-3, HR, K
- Starling Marte 1-3
- Brandon Nimmo 0-3, 2 K
- Jose Siri 0-4, BB, 3 K
- Juan Soto 2-5, 2B, K
- Jesse Winker 1-2
Three Things To Watch For:
- Tylor Megill’s pitch selection. For Megill to finally have a breakout year, he’s going to need to make the best of his pitch selection. Last season he was in the 67th percentile for chase%, 74th for Whiff% and 79th for K%. This is because, according to Baseball Savant and Statcast, he tossed eight different pitches last season. He added in a cutter that he used 14.2% of the time. Let’s see how much of his arsenal is used today!
- Hitting Runners In Scoring Position. The Mets went 0-for-6 yesterday with runners in scoring position and left 10 batters on base. The Astros were not much better, going 1-for-8 with RISP and left nine batters on base. For the Astros, they could have put the game out of reach early with a big hit as they got Holmes into trouble multiple times. The Mets ended up losing by only two, a big hit in the 8th or 9th and we would be talking about taking the series today.
- Mark Vientos. Juan Soto worked two walks yesterday. He’s led the league in walks in three of the last four seasons. Pete Alonso walked twice yesterday. Mark Vientos is going to get some major RBI opportunities this season. In 2024, Vientos was fourth on the team with 71 RBI’s, despite playing only 111 games.
Let’s Go Mets!
