The New York Mets take the field for the first regular season game of 2025 this afternoon against the Houston Astros. Max Scherzer was told at the 2023 trade deadline that 2024 would be a transition year. Instead, 2024 was one of the wildest rollercoasters ever for the Amazin’s. After starting off 0-5, the Mets went on a mini-run to start the season 12-8. Then the Mets completely fell apart for a month. On June 2nd they were 24-35.
That’s when the magic started. Grimace threw a first pitch. The Mets went on a run. Candelita dropped a chart-topping track. The Mets soared back to life, clinching a spot in the post-season in game one of a back-and-forth double-header in Atlanta. Last season was filled with magical moments.
Francisco Lindor was the engine that pushed the Mets out of the dark depths of the NL East to the NLCS in 2024. He put together arguably the best season for a position player in Mets history. In 2025 he has one of the best hitters in baseball, Juan Soto, hitting right behind him. Let’s get the 2025 story started!
Who had Clay Holmes as the Opening Day starter? The Met signed Clay Holmes believing in his ability to start games. Last season he tossed more than 40 pitches once and more than 30 only four times. You wouldn’t know that looking at his spring training outings. He allowed only two runs from seven hits over 19 1/3 innings spread over five games.
Last season Holmes pitched in 67 games totaling 63 innings with a 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.302 WHIP and a 131 ERA+. He opened his season against the Astros, pitching against them three times between March 28th and March 31st, scattering five hits over 3 innings without allowing a run. The Astros have the following career numbers against him:
- Jose Altuve 1-4
- Yordan Alvarez 2-5, 2B, BB
- Victor Caratini 1-3, 2 BB
- Yainer Diaz 1-3
- Mauricio Dubón 2-6
- Chas McCormick 1-2
- Isaac Paredes 1-6, 5 K
- Jeremy Peña 1-3, 2 K
- Christian Walker 1-2, HR, BB, K
Framber Valdez put together another great season in 2024, making 28 starts totaling 176 1/3 innings with a 2.91 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.106 WHIP and a 136 ERA+. It was his third season in his last four with an ERA+ north of 135. He faced the Mets last season right as the Mets were starting to get hot. The Mets got him for six runs, three earned, over 4 2/3 innings from eight hits and three walks. The Mets have the following career numbers against Valdez:
- Pete Alonso 3-8, BB, 2 K
- Francisco Lindor 1-8, 2 BB, K
- Starling Marte 4-15, 2 2B, 4 K
- Brandon Nimmo 2-10, 2B, 3 K
- Jose Siri 1-5, 2B, 3 K
- Juan Soto 2-5, 2 BB, 2 K
- Tyrone Taylor 0-2, BB
- Luis Torrens 2-12, 3 K
- Mark Vientos 1-3, HR, K
- Jesse Winker 2-4
Three Things To Watch For:
- Juan Soto. The signed a superstar this off-season, coming off his best season by bWAR in his career (7.9, next closest was 7.3 in 2021). There’s a lot to talk about with Juan Soto, and today let’s look how patient he is at the plate. He lead the league in walks in 2021-2023 (145, 135 and 132). Last season (129) he was second to his teammate Aaron Judge (133). Take the crown again in 2025 Soto!
- Pete Alonso. What a shame it would have been for Pete Alonso to sign with anyone else this off-season. Pete Alonso hit the biggest home run of his career during the Wild Card Series to send the Mets to the Division Series. He enters this season with 226 regular season home runs, 26 behind Darryl Strawberry’s 252. Pete’s pursuit of this milestone will be a major story of 2025.
- Park Factor. If you look at the last three years, Daikin Park (formerly Minute Maid) has a Park Factor of exactly 100, which means its league average. This is a bit surprising with a park factor of 107 for home runs (which means for players who played at Daikin over the last three seasons and elsewhere, 7% more home runs were observed at Daikin). This number jumps up to 116 if only data from 2024 is considered. I’m curious how the Crawford Boxes in left field impact a pull hitter like Isaac Parades, who the Astros traded for in the off-season.
Let’s Go Mets!
