The Mets return to the diamond tonight in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers in game one of the 2024 NLCS! What a ride for the New York Mets, who are the only wild card team remaining in the postseason. To get here they had to beat the 2024 NL Central Champions and the East Champions (Brewers & Phillies). Now only the NL West Champions stand in their way to the World Series!
Kodai Senga will make his second start in the playoffs tonight. His last time out he he allowed a lead-off homerun to Kyle Schwarber and then shutdown the Phillies for two innings. He walked one and struck out three over two innings while tossing 31 pitches. It is expected that he’ll pitch closer to 50-60 pitches today with David Peterson picking up the rest of his start. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against Senga:
- Mookie Betts 3-3, HR
- Tommy Edman 1-6, K
- Freddie Freeman 0-2, BB, K
- Teoscar Hernández 1-3, 2B, K
- Max Muncy 0-2, BB, K
- Shohei Ohtani 1-1, 2B, 2 BB
- Miguel Rojas 0-2
- Will Smith 0-2, K
The Mets bats will face off of the major tradeline acquisition for the Dodgers – Jack Flaherty. Over 28 starts this season Flaherty pitched 162 innings with a 3.17 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.068 WHIP, and 127 ERA+. His stats were slightly worse when you look only at his Dodger starts (3.58 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.283 WHIP, 108 ERA+ over 55 1/3 innings). The Padres got to him in his last start, hitting two homers and scoring four runs over 5 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Flaherty:
- Pete Alonso 2-3, 2B, K
- Jose Iglesias 0-5, K
- Francisco Lindor 0-4, BB, K
- Starling Marte 4-22, HR, BB, 7 K
- J.D. Martinez 1-2, K
- Tyrone Taylor 0-4, 2 K
- Jesse Winker 8-21, 2 1B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Kodai Senga. The Dodgers’ strength is the relentlessness of the top of their lineup (more on that in a moment), Kodai Senga could be the antidote, keeping hitters off balance with his unique mix of pitches. In his last start he tossed 31 pitches, 13 of them of them fastballs. The vast majority of those 13 were the low-to-mid 90’s. He tossed four pitches above 95 heading towards 97. Baseball Savant sometimes struggles with his pitches, so take this next part with a grain of salt, he mixed in six forkballs, six sweepers and three sliders. How will the Dodgers fair with his mix of off-speed stuff?
- Containing the heart of the Dodgers lineup. Shohei Ohtani had an MVP season (more on that in a moment) with a 190 OPS+ this season. Mookie Betts had a 145 OPS+. Freddie Freeman had a 143 OPS+. Even when you get through those three huge bats, you still have to get through Teoscar Hernández who had a 137 OPS+ in 2024. How does Carlos Mendoza navigate these four hitters? Senga with Peterson tonight gives him the opportunity to prevent any hitter from seeing a pitcher three times.
- MVP Matchup. Shohei Ohtani had a historic season at the plate. Tonight he has to face his main competition for the MVP award – Francisco Lindor (138 OPS+). Lindor launched the Mets into the postseason hitting a go-ahead homerun in the first game of a doubleheader in Atlanta, that allowed the Mets to save Severino for the Brewers. A week later Francisco Lindor hit a go-ahead grand slam to send the Mets to the NLCS. There were stretches this season that Lindor carried the New York Mets. Winner of this series gets to be the regular season MVP, who says no?
Let’s Go Mets!
