The New York Mets look to continue their incredible ride in Philadelphia this afternoon! Thursday night the Mets did the improbable. Pete Alonso launched a three-run home run in the top of the ninth to take the Mets from losing to winning a single moment. For the Mets it has become their calling card – their ability to flip a game’s momentum in a single moment.
Now the Mets return to Citizens Bank Park, a park where they just dropped a three game series in mid-September but came out strong in the first game, beating the Phillies to 11-3. Get the rally pumpkins ready, it’s October Baseball time!
What a surprise for the New York Mets tonight! Kodai Senga was rehabbing from calf injury after his start in July. He had a setback in September which changed his status to “maybe in the postseason?”. He’s ready to go this afternoon and according to him he can pitch anywhere between 10 and 200 pitches. In his only start this season he allowed only two runs from two hits against the Braves over 5 1/3 innings while striking out nine batters. Last season Senga had a spectacular start (seven innings, one hit, no runs) and a not so spectacular start (four runs, two earned, 5 1/3 innings) against the Phillies. The Phillies have the following career numbers against him:
- Alec Bohm 1-5, K
- Nick Castellanos 1-6, 2 K
- Kody Clemens 1-2 K
- Bryce Harper 1-2, BB, K
- Brandon Marsh 1-4, 2B, K
- J.T. Realmuto 0-4, BB, 2 K
- Kyle Schwarber 0-6, 4 K
- Edmundo Sosa 0-2
- Bryson Stott 1-5, K
- Trea Turner 0-5, BB, K
The Mets will face off against an old friend tonight in Zack Wheeler. Over 32 games this season, his third season in his last four where he started 32 games, he pitched 200 innings with a 2.57 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 0.955 WHIP (league leading) and a 158 ERA+. He’s been his excellent self in his last four starts, allowing seven runs over 26 1/3 innings (2.39 ERA, 2.75 FIP). This includes a start against the Mets where he allowed two runs over seven innings on September 22nd, a game the Mets won 2-1. The Mets have the following career numbers against Wheeler:
- Luisangel Acuña 1-3
- Pete Alonso 10-34, 2 2B, 2 BB, 9 K
- Francisco Alvarez 0-2, BB, K
- Jose Iglesias 5-12, 2B, 2 K
- Francisco Lindor 8-29, 2B, 3B, HR, 6 K
- Starling Marte 7-23, 2B, 3B, BB, 4 K
- Brandon Nimmo 13-44, 3 2B, 3B, 2 HR, BB, 7 K
- Tyrone Taylor 2-6, 2B, K
- Mark Vientos 2-6, 2B, K
- Jesse Winker 0-10, 2 BB
Three Things To Watch For:
- Rest vs Momentum. Last season three 100 win teams were all eliminated in the division round, leading to an argument about the extra rest that the division winners got, allowing them to get rusty vs the teams that went through the wild card round. The Phillies have had a good amount of time since last Sunday to get rest, reset their lineup, etc. The Mets had an extra doubleheader and were the only team that played a wild card series to three games. If the Phillies are rusty, the Mets will need to jump on them early. If the Mets are tired, the Phillies will need to rob the Mets of their momentum early.
- Mets Pitching. We are assuming that Senga is going to have a short outing followed by either Peterson or Megill. Peterson had a terrific start at the end of the season against the Brewers, holding them to one run over seven innings, and then closed the game on Thursday, allowing a hit and nothing else over one inning. His two starts before the Brewers were against the Phillies where he allowed five runs over 3 2/3 innings at Citi Field, and held the Phillies to one run over 7 2/3 innings at CBP. Tylor hasn’t pitched since the doubleheader on Monday where he allowed three runs over 5 2/3 innings. Before that he allowed one run over four innings against the Phillies.
- Big Hits from the Big Bats. Both the Mets and Phillies have hitters that can change a game in the moment. For the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber is a lead-off home run hitting machine. Between Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper, there is power up and down the lineup. The Mets have their own lead-off home run power in Francisco Lindor. Pete Alonso is coming off of his biggest swing in his life. Mark Vientos has been a revelation. In the regular season the Mets hit 207 home runs and the Phillies had 198 (6th and 7th in the league respectively).
Let’s Go Mets!
