Game Preview: Mets @ Phillies

The Mets have finally reached their final stretch run that features two series against the Phillies, the Braves, the Brewers and … the Nationals. The Mets have one of the hardest if not the hardest schedules to end out the season. It’s just one game at a time now for the Mets who still control their own destiny.

The Mets offense was struggling in Toronto, leading to a storybook ninth inning on Wednesday. After several days in a row of struggling to rack up hits, the Mets didn’t have a hit at all in the first eight innings on Wednesday’s game. Then the offense just exploded in the ninth on Wednesday with Francisco Lindor tying the game on a solo shot and the Mets scoring five runs after. Let’s hope the momentum continues tonight.

Jose Quintana has tossed 152 innings over 28 starts with a 4.09 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.309 WHIP and a 95 ERA+. He’s coming off a great start against the Reds where he held the Reds to no runs from five hits over 6 2/3 wins on his way to his 100th career win. In Quintana’s last three games he has allowed only two runs, one earned, over 18 innings (0.50 ERA, 3.01 FIP). The Phillies have faced Quintana twice so far this season scoring five runs on 10 hits over nine innings. The Phillies have the following career numbers against Quintana:

  • Nick Castellanos 13-50, 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 9 K
  • Aramis Garcia 0-2, K
  • Bryce Harper 3-18, HR, BB, 7 K
  • Brandon Marsh 0-2, K
  • J.T. Realmuto 4-16, HR, 3 BB
  • Johan Rojas 4-7, 2 K
  • Kyle Schwarber 6-21, 2B, HR, 7 K
  • Bryson Stott 0-1, BB
  • Garrett Stubbs 0-2
  • Trea Turner 6-21, 2B, 3 K
  • Weston Wilson 0-4, 2K

The Mets bats will get a look at an old foe in Aaron Nola this evening. Over 29 games, 177 innings, Nola has a 3.41 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.181 WHIP and a 119 ERA+. Nola is coming off of a rough start against the Marlins where he allowed five runs, four earned over 4 2/3 innings. In his four starts before that he allowed only four runs over 25 innings (1.44 ERA, 3.13 FIP). His one start against the Mets this season was his best start of the season where he tossed a complete game shutout at Citi Field. The Mets have the following career numbers against Nola:

  • Pete Alonso 16-49, 3 2B, 5 HR, 3 BB, 13 K
  • Harrison Bader 0-2, 2 K
  • José Iglesias 3-7, 2B
  • Francisco Lindor 6-30, 2 2B, 6 K
  • Starling Marte 11-31, 2B, HR, 9 K
  • J.D. Martinez 3-19, 2 BB, 10 K
  • Brandon Nimmo 12-50, 3B, HR, 11 BB, 19 K
  • DJ Stewart 0-1, K
  • Tyrone Taylor 3-8, 2 2B, BB
  • Luis Torrens 2-3
  • Jesse Winker 4-22, HR, 2 BB, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Pete Alonso vs Aaron Nola. Pete and Nola have been with their respective teams for a long time. It’s actually unusual that the Mets have two players tonight on the roster who have around 50 AB’s against the starting pitcher on a divisional rival. There’s a chance Nola lines up with Alonso again at the end of the season. There’s a chance that Pete Alonso signs a long term contract with the Mets during the off-season. There’s also a chance that this is the last Alonso / Nola matchup with Alonso as a Met. Alonso has a career 1.059 OPS against Nola – it would be awesome if he could take Nola deep one more time.
  2. National League MVP Race. Francisco Lindor looked like an MVP in the ninth inning on Wednesday, hitting a solo home run that may have saved the Mets season. He’s sitting at 7.3 fWAR after a bit of a slump. Meanwhile Shohei has been turning it on recently and is now up to 7.0 WAR. Stat collecting aside, the Mets need Lindor to be Lindor this season to survive the series in Philly.
  3. A lot has changed since the teams last met. The Mets and Phillies first faced each other in May, when the Mets were in the midst of their downward spiral. The Phillies swept that series. The Phillies and Mets then Met in a two-game series in London which the teams split, just days before Grimace tossed the first pitch. The Mets have lived 1000 lives since the teams last Met.

Let’s Go Mets!

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