The Mets have finally made it to decision week! Over the next seven games the Mets will face the National League wild card leaders San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Mets can make their path to October much easier with a strong week. These two teams last met during the height of the Grimace-era Mets and the Mets swept the Padres. If the Mets win just one game this series they will clinch the tiebreaker against Padres.
Luis Severino did something his last time out that no Mets pitcher had done since Jacob deGrom circa 2021 – Severino tossed a complete game shutout. Over 24 starts this season (142 2/3 innings), Severino has a 3.91 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.220 WHIP and a 100 ERA+. He needed that complete game shutout as the three starts before it, he allowed 15 runs, 14 earned over 13 innings. The Padres have the following career numbers against Severino:
- Luis Arráez 1-2
- Xander Bogaerts 3-29, 2B, BB, 8 K
- Jake Cronenworth 0-3
- Manny Machado 4-17, 2B, 3 HR, BB, 10 K
The Mets bats draw Dylan Cease for the season opener. Over 26 starts, 148 1/3 innings, Cease has a 3.46 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.025 WHIP and a 118 ERA+. In his last two starts he has allowed eight runs, five earned, over 10 2/3 innings (4.22 ERA, 5.69 FIP). One of his worst starts of the season this year was against the Mets in June where the Mets racked up seven runs over 3 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:
- Pete Alonso 1-5, HR, 3 K
- Harrison Bader 1-3, 2B, BB, K
- José Iglesias 1-2, K
- Francisco Lindor 3-9, 3 HR, K
- Starling Marte 0-3, 2 BB, K
- J.D. Martinez 4-8, 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
- Jeff McNeil 1-5
- Brandon Nimmo 2-3
- Tyrone Taylor 0-3, K
- Luis Torrens 1-2, K
- Mark Vientos 0-2, 2 K
- Jesse Winker 0-9, 2 BB, 6 K
Three Things To Watch For:
- The Power is back. The Mets scored three of their four runs on Wednesday on solo home runs. This isn’t always a recipe for success, and speaks to the Mets problems in general at hitting with runners in scoring position (0-for-4 Wednesday, left eight runners on). What made the June Mets so good was it felt like power could come from any point of the lineup and we saw that on Wednesday.
- Strikeouts. For the last several games we’ve discussed looking at strikeouts as a bellwether. In the three games before Wednesday the Mets struck out a combined 37 times. Wednesday they only struck out five times, compared to four walks.
- MVP Watch. On Monday Francisco Lindor had an off night, going 0-for-3 at the plate with a walk and a stolen base. Since then he has gone 4-for-8 with two doubles and a home run. He now has a .815 OPS and a 131 OPS+, his best ever as a Met.
Let’s Go Mets!
