The Grimace Era Mets are on a roll!
The Mets won their sixth game in a row on Monday night recording more than 20 hits for the first time since 2019. The Mets are now one game out of the last wild card spot and for the first time since they started this improbable run, the Mets have leapt over two teams they were chasing.
Tonight the Mets will attempt to climb over another wall they’ve encountered this year. There have been times when the offense is clicking that the next game the offense vanishes – it’s even happened during this win streak! The vibes are good, let’s go for win seven in a row tonight!
Luis Severino has pitched 78 innings over 13 starts this year with a 3.12 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 1.179 WHIP and a 123 ERA+. In his last two starts he has allowed two earned runs from 14 hits and three walks over 14 innings. He’s allowed exactly one run in three of his last four starts. Severino had a strong start against the Rangers in 2023, holding them scoreless over six innings scattering five hits. The Rangers have the following career numbers against him:
- Ezequiel Duran 0-2
- Adolis García 2-5, BB, K
- Robbie Grossman 1-5, K
- Andrew Knizner 1-2
- Nathaniel Lowe 0-5, BB, 2 K
- Corey Seager 0-7
- Marcus Semien 3-15, BB, 3 K
- Josh Smith 0-1, BB
- Leody Taveras 1-3, 2B
The Mets bats will look to channel Monday night’s energy against tonight’s starter, Michael Lorenzen. Over 11 starts this season he has pitched 66 innings with a 2.86 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 1.182 WHIP and a 138 ERA+. Lorenzen’s ERA is quite a bit better than his career mark (4.01) but his FIP is actually worse than his career number (4.35). Since May 13th he has allowed six runs over 37 innings (1.46 ERA, 4.12 FIP) . He faced the Mets three times last year (one start, two relief outings) holding the Mets to one run over nine innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:
- Pete Alonso 2-9, BB
- Francisco Alvarez 0-2
- Harrison Bader 1-4, 2 BB, 2 K
- José Iglesias 1-2
- Francisco Lindor 3-12, K
- Starling Marte 6-17, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
- J.D. Martinez 1-3
- Jeff McNeil 0-6, 3 BB
- Brandon Nimmo 1-10, 2B, K
- Tyrone Taylor 0-0, BB
Three Things To Watch For:
- Francisco Lindor. Since May 19th Francisco Lindor has hit .330/.395/.566 with 15 extra-base hits. He’s hit five home runs and he’s stolen five bases. On Monday night he went 4-for-4 with three runs scored. Since June 12th he has reached based 13 times and scored nine times! This is exactly what we’ve been dreaming about.
- Hitting with runners in scoring position. The only way players like Lindor can have stats like scoring nine times in 13 times on base is hitting with runners in scoring position. On Sunday the Mets went 5-for-8 with RISP and scored 11 runs. Monday nigh the Mets went 9-for-17 with RISP and scored 14 runs. I’m trying to contain my optimism right now, but it’s near impossible after seeing results like that!
- Which Lorenzen do the Mets get tonight? Lorenzen had good success against the Mets last year and has had pretty fantastic true results in the last month or so, despite the Rangers not always taking advantage of it. However there are some warning signs for him in the underlying numbers. His xERA is 4.65, nearly two runs higher than his actual number. His xFIP is 4.71 suggesting that his actual FIP is probably accurate.
Let’s Go Mets!
