Game Preview: Mets @ Braves

If you turned the game off Tuesday night when the Mets were down 6-0, you missed their near comeback. The Mets scored five runs in the 8th and 9th and ended up losing by only one run. The Mets got a second consecutive less-than-great start from a starting pitcher leading to an early hole. The Mets bats though were able to scratch out five runs, including three runs on a Pete Alonso home run.

The difficulty for the Mets bats was hitting with runners in scoring position, again. The Mets went 1-for-10 with RISP, and ultimately that was the difference in the result.

Looking ahead for tonight, Carlos Mendoza was able to give the key players in the bullpen the night off and has a much more rested bullpen going into tonight’s match.

Jose Quintana makes his third start of the season tonight. Over his first two starts he’s tossed 10 1/3 innings allowing three runs from 11 hits while striking out six batters. As we go through the first month of the season, stats start to correct themselves and Quintana has a serious early in the season mismatch with a 2.61 ERA coupled with a 5.94 FIP, 1.645 WHIP. Quintana made two starts against the Braves last season with two very different results. In the first match he held the Braves to one run from four hits over six innings. In the second start the Braves got him for five runs from nine hits over 5 1/3 innings. The Braves have the following career numbers against Quintana:

  • Ronald Acuña Jr. 2-13, 2 BB, 3 K
  • Ozzie Albies 6-10, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, K
  • Orlando Arcia 4-32, 2B, 6 BB, 6 K
  • Travis d’Arnaud 1-6, BB, 2 K
  • Adam Duvall 3-8, 2 HR, 5 BB, K
  • Luis Guillorme 0-2
  • Michael Harris II 3-9, 2B, 2 K
  • Jarred Kelenic 1-2, K
  • Matt Olson 4-18, 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
  • Marcell Ozuna 10-22, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
  • Austin Riley 2-9, 3 BB, K

This was supposed to be the Spencer Strider game for the Braves today, but Strider felt the dreaded elbow soreness after his last start, landing on the injured list. The Braves brought up Allan Winans to be a fresh arm for the bullpen and since he wasn’t needed in relief, he is now starting for Atlanta tonight.

Last season Winans made six starts totaling 32 1/3 innings with a 5.29 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.392 WHIP and an 85 ERA+. This includes back to back starts against the Mets in August with two very different results. In Queens, Winans shut the Mets out over seven innings holding them to just four hits while striking out nine batters. A week later the Mets scored seven runs against him off nine hits over 4 1/3 innings. Winans has made one start in the minors this season allowing two runs from six hits over 5 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Winans:

  • Pete Alonso 1-5, BB, 2 K
  • Francisco Lindor 1-3
  • Jeff McNeil 3-6
  • Omar Narváez 3-5, 2B
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-2, BB, K
  • DJ Stewart 2-5, HR, K

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Stolen Bases. We started to see this in the series against the Reds, but the Mets are having an early season issue with stolen bases. Acuña stole three bases against the Mets last night. Narváez hasn’t looked the best behind the plate when it comes to runners taking chances. Part of this could be because the Mets are facing two of the more electric stars for stealing bases in back-to-back series (Elly De La Cruz followed by Ronald Acuña Jr. just isn’t fair). When future opponents see the amount of stolen bases the Mets have allowed on scouting reports, they are going to feel a little more confident to take the risk.
  2. Hitting with runners in scoring position. We discussed this a bit in the introduction but this was the ultimate difference in Tuesday’s game. The Mets went 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position. The Braves went 7-for-14. Splitting / Winning this series will come down to the Mets breaking out of their slump and stopping the onslaught from the Braves.
  3. Pete Alonso: Yesterday we talked about the slump that Alonso was mired in. He had a terrific game at the plate last night going 2-for-4 with a double, three-run homer and a walk. Here’s hoping he keeps this going tonight and powers the Mets offense to a win.

Let’s Go Mets!

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