The Mets and the Cubs are on two different trajectories for the rest of the 2023 season. The Mets saw the writing on the wall and traded away aging stars and expiring contracts at the trade deadline. Since then the Mets have lost every game. The Cubs made a push in the standings at the deadline, held onto their stars (possibly increasing the Mets return in trades) and have continued to play well. They are only four games over five hundred, but currently are tied with the Reds for a Wild Card spot and only 1.5 games back from the division lead. Can the Mets play spoilers this week? Will the Cubs use the Mets on their way to push for the division title?
The Mets to got a quality start yesterday and Kodai Senga looks to keep that momentum going tonight. Over 20 starts (110 2/3 innings), Senga has a 3.25 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.292 WHIP and a 127 ERA+. Since June 28th Senga has made six starts totaling 34 innings with a 2.65 ERA, 2.73 FIP. At the start of the year he was struggling with homers and walks. During this current stretch he has allowed only two homers (last one on July 15th) and has walked only 11 batters (44 before this). When he faced the Cubs earlier this year he allowed three runs from six hits and five walks over five innings. The Cubs have the following career numbers against him:
- Jeimer Candelario 0-5, 3 K
- Seiya Suzuki 1-2, 2B, BB
- Nico Hoerner 0-2, K, BB
- Ian Happ 1-3, 2 K
- Dansby Swanson 1-3, 2B
- Mike Tachman 2-3, K
- Christopher Morel 1-3, K
- Tucker Barnhart 0-1, BB
Drew Smyly has pitched 112 2/3 innings over 22 games (20 starts) with a 4.71 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 1.349 WHIP and a 97 ERA+. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five outings. Over that stretch he has allowed a total of 20 runs, 19 earned, over 22 2/3 innings (7.54 ERA, 6.57 FIP). If you look a little bit farther back, to his last seven games he has allowed 30 runs from 40 hits and ten homers (8.40 ERA, 6.56 FIP). Before this stretch that started on June 28th, he had a 3.38 ERA. Smyly had an average outing against the Mets back in May where he allowed two runs over five innings, he’ll gladly take an outing like that again tonight. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:
- Starling Marte 4-17, 2 2B, 3 K
- Francisco Lindor 5-17, 2B, 3 K, 2 BB
- Brandon Nimmo 5-13, 2 2B, 3 K, BB
- Pete Alonso 4-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 K, 2 BB
- Jeff McNeil 0-5, K, 2 BB
- Daniel Vogelbach 2-8
- Mark Vientos 0-4, 3 K
- Brett Baty 0-2
- Omar Narváez 0-1
Three Things To Watch For:
- The Mets Offense? The Mets offense essentially disappeared this weekend collecting only four hits yesterday. They’ve scored three runs in their last two games. Yesterday was particularly frustrating because even though the Mets only had four hits, they did work six walks but couldn’t do anything with that. Plus, they actually got a quality start from a starting pitcher. Hopefully the Mets can change this part of their story tonight against a struggling Drew Smyly.
- Brett Baty. Baty had a pretty terrible Saturday night striking out three times. Yesterday he went 0-for-2 at the plate, working two walks and recording zero strikeouts. Being patient at the plate and working walks, especially after a frustrating three-strikeout game is a sign of resilience and growth for the Mets third basemen of the future.
- What’s the vibe at Citi Field? The Mets are returning home for the first time tonight since the trade deadline. It’s also a Monday night after a rainy day in New York. What are the vibes going to be like? Is it going to be mostly empty? Apathetic? How will the players feed off of the crowd?
Let’s Go Mets!
