The Mets open up a series against the Nationals tonight after a disappointing loss yesterday. The Mets, perpetually stuck in the mud, find themselves seven games below .500 and 7.5 games out of the Wild Card. In the last month they’ve barely moved in the race in either direction. With the Angels holding onto Ohtani and going for it with a Lucas Giolito trade – the trade deadline season is now fully open. The Mets plans right now are like the team – just stuck. A good weekend can make the Mets feel good about doing nothing at the deadline, a terrible weekend might set off a small fire sale. But what if the Mets and Nationals split? We have to play the games to see what happens!
Kodai Senga returns to the mound after a frustrating start in Boston. He was roughed up over the first two innings, then found his stride in the third. Then the skies opened up and Fenway flooded. Over 99 innings this season he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.263 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. He pitched against the Nationals way back on April 26th allowing two runs from five hits and four walks over five innings of work while striking out 7. This was back when Senga was struggling with his command (he walked four batters in four consecutive starts). The Nationals have the following career numbers against Senga:
- Alex Call 0-2, 2 K, BB
- Keibert Ruiz 0-2, BB
- Luis García 0-2, BB
- Jeimer Candelario 0-3, 2 K
- Dominic Smith 1-2, 2B
- Lane Thomas 1-1, BB
- Joey Meneses 1-3
- CJ Abrams 2-2
The Mets will faces off against Josiah Gray, who is in the midst of a breakout season. Over 20 starts, 112 1/3 innings, he has a 3.45 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.442 WHIP and a 121 ERA+. For comparison, in his career he has a 4.59 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 1.387 WHIP and an 88 ERA+. After a couple of rough starts at the beginning of July where he allowed nine runs over 10 innings, he rebounded nicely his last time out holding the Giants to one run over seven innings. He faced the Mets earlier this season and held the Mets scoreless over six innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:
- Francisco Lindor 0-8, 2 K, 2 BB
- Pete Alonso 3-9, 2B, HR, 4 K, BB
- Brandon Nimmo 4-8, 2B, 3B, 2 K, BB
- Jeff McNeil 4-9, 2B, HR
- Daniel Vogelbach 1-3, K, 2 BB
- Mark Canha 1-3, K, BB
- Brett Baty 1-2, 2B
- Tommy Pham 1-2, HR, K, BB
- Francisco Álvarez 1-2, K
Three Things To Watch For:
- A battle of All-Stars. The Mets and Nationals are fourth and fifth in the National League respectively but tonight is a battle of 2023 All-Stars as both Senga and Gray earned the honors a few weeks ago. Both Senga and Gray have looked dominate at periods of time this year. They also share a similar weakness – walks. Gray has had a BB/9 rate of at least 4.0 his entire career. The last time he faced the Mets he only walked one batter. If both pitchers are on it tonight, the game could potentially fly by. If both pitchers are struggling with command we will see a memorable total of walks.
- Trade block position players. The most likely position players to be traded on the Mets are Tommy Pham and Mark Canha. Tommy Pham finally started a game yesterday, although at DH, and went 0-for-4. Mark Canha went 1-for-2 with a walk. As we head towards next Tuesday’s trade deadline there will be a lot of analyzing every lineup that does or does not have either player.
- David Robertson. David Robertson is the most likely reliever to be traded as he is the best true rental the Mets have to offer. In the last five days he has only pitched on Tuesday where he tossed seven pitches to secure two outs and record a hold against the Yankees.
Let’s Go Mets!
