Are the Mets buyers or sellers?
The next week is going to be crucial for the Mets in 2023. A disastrous week can put the playoffs out of reach and put the team into a full sell mode. A fantastic week, building on the series win against the Giants, can allow the Mets to think about what direction they are going until after the All-Star break.
We already saw a preview of a retooling July could look like with the Mets trade for Trevor Gott yesterday. The Mets didn’t give up a prospect, rather they took on salary to get a pitcher under contract for another 1.5 seasons. This “not quite” buyers or sellers approach can marginally improve the team in 2023 and next year. If the Mets get a few more wins this week they can continue this approach.
Kodai Senga gets the start for the Mets this afternoon. Over 15 games and 81 2/3 innings this year he has a 3.53 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.347 WHIP and a 117 ERA+. He is still leading the league in walks at 46 but is coming off of a start where he only walked two batters. In his last start he allowed two runs over five innings while striking out eight. It was the third start in his last four that he has allowed two earned runs or fewer.
The Mets bats will get a look at Zach Davies. Over nine starts (42 2/3 innings) Davies has a 6.54 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.617 WHIP and a 67 ERA+. He’s coming off of his best start of the season where he shutout the Rays for seven innings, holding them to only two hits. Before that he allowed 21 runs, 18 earned, over three starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:
- Starling Marte 12-31, 2 2B, 3 BB
- Tommy Pham 3-14, BB, 4 K
- Pete Alonso 0-4, BB
- Jeff McNeil 3-7
- Omar Narváez 0-5, BB
- Brandon Nimmo 3-6, 2 2B, 3B, K
- Daniel Vogelbach 2-4, HR, BB, K
- Mark Canha 1-3
Three Things To Watch For:
- Tommy Pham is just destroying baseballs right now. Sunday night Tommy Pham went 3-for-4 at the plate with two doubles. In his last five games he has now 12-for-18 at the plate with five extra-base hits and has an absurd .667/.700/1.167 (1.867 OPS) batting line. It was his sixth three-hit game of the season. In his last 28 games he is hitting .378/.431/.694. Pham’s OPS has gone from .627 to .892 during this time.
- Meet the newest Met. The Mets traded for Trevor Gott yesterday. Over 30 games (29 innings) this season, he has a 4.03 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.414 WHIP and a 101 ERA+. Since returning from the injured list he has allowed three runs from four hits over 2 1/3 innings. He hasn’t pitched since June 30th so depending on how fast the Mets want to throw him in, he’s ready to go! His Baseball Savant page is where his numbers begin to pop-out. He’s in the 94th percentile for barrel percentage, 88th for xERA/xwOBA, 83rd for xSLG, 81st in walk percentage and 75th for xBA. Essentially, he generally avoids hard contact and doesn’t walk a ton.
- Old Friend! The Mets got Miguel Castro before the 2020 trade deadline. Castro had a great year with the Mets in 2021, pitching 70 1/3 innings with a 3.45 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.294 WHIP and a 116 ERA+. The Mets traded Castro to the Yankees before the 2022 season for Joely Rodríguez. After his one season with the Yankees, Castro signed a deal with Arizona. Miguel is thriving this season with a 3.24 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.050 WHIP and a 135 ERA+ over 33 1/3 innings. We’re happy to see Miguel doing so well!
Let’s Go Mets!
