Game Preview: Rays vs Mets

Last night was a mix of some old and some new for the New York Mets. The Mets got a rough start from a pitcher who was supposed to be a source of strength for the Mets (Justin Verlander), adding to the narrative that the starting pitching is the breaking point for this team. On the new side, the Mets bats actually hit homeruns. At one point the Rays were up 6-0 and thanks to homers from Brett Baty, Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar the Mets were able to make the final score 8-5.

Can the offense come through again tonight? Can the Mets set up a rubber game for tomorrow?

Kodai Senga makes his eighth start of the season tonight. Over his first 37 innings, he has a 4.14 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 1.514 WHIP and a 101 ERA+. After back to back starts where Senga allowed only two runs over 11 innings while striking out 11 batters, he took a step back in his last start. Against the Reds last week he allowed five runs from eight eight hits and a walk over five innings, while striking out seven batters.

Josh Fleming will make his second start of the season tonight. Over eight total games and 31 2/3 innings, he has a 4.26 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.421 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. Fleming has started since his first game of the season where he allowed five runs over three innings from 10 hits and a walk. Since then he has always pitched in relief with a minimum of three innings and a maximum of six innings. Fleming has already reached the 80 pitch plateau this season as well. His last time out was a solid bounce back. On May 7th he allowed six runs over five innings and then five days later he allowed only one run over four innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 0-3
  • Starling Marte 1-3
  • Jeff McNeil 3-3
  • Francisco Lindor 0-2
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-1

I’ve been writing game previews and game threads for a long time. This is the first time the Mets have had at least five players face an opponent and only have singles, no walks and no strikeouts.

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Quality Starts: The Mets are 30th in the league in quality starts. That pretty much explains the entire Mets season. Kodai Senga, who already has two quality starts this season is looking to give the Mets only their 7th quality start of the season. That would tie the Mets with the Royals. The next closest NL East team is the Marlins with 10 quality starts.
  2. Alonso has a share of the homer lead again! Alonso tied Max Muncy for the season lead in homers at 14. To put this in perspective, the Mets as a ball club only have 44 homers. His homer created a moment of hope that maybe the Mets could mount a comeback. The Mets, who are overwhelmingly outscored in the first inning, could use an Alonso homer early tonight.
  3. Keep the Rays in the ballpark! Paredes hit two homers last night for a total of five runs. Siri hit a massive solo shot after Bretty Baty’s bomb. The Rays lead the league with homers and it’s how they get on the scoreboard in a hurry. Kodai Senga has allowed six homers this year at a rate of 1.5 HR/9, but he has allowed only one homer in his last three games. Keep the Rays in the park tonight and the Mets will have a chance.

Let’s Go Mets!

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