We have been waiting all season for the next two games. The Mets will finally send out their dual aces – Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander – in back to back games.
Starting pitching has been the main weak point for the 2023 Mets. Between injuries to Verlander, Quintana, Carrasco to David Peterson’s surprising struggles, the Mets have been in a tough spot the last five or so weeks. Scherzer wasn’t Scherzer like at the start of the year and it looked like he was finally coming back in his last start against the Dodgers but then he got suspended for sweat and rosin (and for what happens to that mixture when you use alcohol to clean it off, which he was directed to do). Anyway, Mad Max finally returns to the mound tonight!
Max has made four starts this season tossing 19 1/3 innings with a 3.72 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 1.190 WHIP and a 113 ERA+. In his first two starts of the season he allowed eight runs over 11 1/3 innings from 12 hits including four homers. In his last two starts he allowed two hits, no runs, over eight innings wile striking out nine. The Tigers have the following career numbers against him:
- Jonathan Schoop 2-17, 2B, BB, 11 K
- Javier Báez 1-12, 2B, 8 K
- Miguel Cabrera 1-6, BB, 4 K
- Matt Vierling 1-5, K
The Mets bats look to stay hot against Michael Lorenzen tonight. Lorenzen had made three starts and pitched 14 innings with a 7.07 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 1.643 WHIP and a 62 ERA+. Two of his starts have been terrible (six runs over four innings, five runs over five innings). Sandwiched between those starts were five shutout innings against the Orioles where he scattered three hits. The Mets have the following numbers against Lorenzen:
- Starling Marte 6-17, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
- Francisco Lindor 2-9, K
- Brandon Nimmo 1-7, 2B
- Tommy Pham 2-7, 2 K
- Pete Alonso 1-5
- Jeff McNeil 0-3, 2 BB
- Eduardo Escobar 2-4, 2B
- Luis Guillorme 2-4
- Tomás NIdo 0-4, 2 K
- Mark Canha 0-2, BB, 2 K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Max’s Velocity: In the first two games Scherzer’s velocity was down and the Exit Velocity against him was fairly up (23rd percentile this season). His fastball is averaging at 93 mph this year compared to 94 last year, but if you look at his Baseball Savant page, you’ll see the overall distribution is skewed, with less higher velocity pitches. We know that Scherzer was working through an injury prior the Dodgers start and now has had a lot of time to rest up. This is going to be an over-analyzed starter for Max.
- Bullpen Usage: The Mets had rely heavily on their bullpen on Monday, essentially starting the day with a bullpen game and then closing out the final three or so innings for Megill Monday night. The good news for the Mets is that prior to the afternoon game today, everyone in the bullpen was off Friday, Saturday and Sunday and then again yesterday. The deepest Scherzer has gone this year is six innings. In his last full start he tossed 97 pitches to get through fives, working himself into a high amount of 3-2 counts.
- The Mets energy in general: The Mets are playing four games over three days, but in intense fashion. Monday they had two back-to-back games before traveling to Detroit. Then they geared themselves up to play last night, only for the game to be called about an hour or so into the delay. Now they have two games today, with an afternoon game tomorrow. In a sport that is more like a marathon and routine, the Mets are doing a lot of heavy sprinting with unusual periods of rest.
Let’s Go Mets!
