The Mets go for their fifth series win in a row tonight as they attempt to extend their winning streak to four games. Last night was just an excellent night all around for the Mets. Joey Lucchesi returned to major league baseball for the first time in nearly two years and had one of the best starts of his career (and arguably the best start by any Met this season) holding the Giants scoreless over seven innings while striking out nine batters. Pete Alonso continued his current tear with his major league leading 10th homer of the season.
Tonight David Peterson gets an important start. With Scherzer out on suspension and Justin Verlander still about two weeks away, the Mets need David Peterson to show that same brilliance he has at various points in his career.
On the season David Peterson has made four starts pitching 20 2/3 innings with a 6.10 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 1.645 WHIP and a 68 ERA+. This season Peterson has been alternating between good starts and not-so-good starts. His last time out he allowed six runs from three homers over six innings against the Dodgers. Before that he kept the Padres to only two runs over 5 2/3 innings. Peterson made a solid start in San Francisco last year holding the Giants to two runs from three hits (one homer) in six innings of work while striking out six. The Giants have the following career numbers against him:
- Thairo Estrada 1-4, 2 K
- Wilmer Flores 0-2
- Darin Ruf 0-2, BB
- Mike Yastrzemski 0-3, K
- Joey Bart 1-2, K
- Brandon Crawford 1-2, HR
Wins and losses as a stat are imperfect, and because they are imperfect they can tell you something about luck. Logan Webb has been fairly unlucky on top of not being his normal self this season. He’s 0-4 in four starts over 23 2/3 innings with a 4.94 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 1.225 WHIP and an 89 ERA+. In all four starts he has allowed four runs, and in three of those starts the four runs have been earned. Webb had two different starts against the Mets last season. In New York he allowed three runs from three walks and six hits over 3 2/3 innings. In San Francisco he lasted five innings, allowing two runs from from five hits and a walk. The Mets have the following numbers against Webb:
- Eduardo Escobar 4-13, 2B, 4 K
- Mark Canha 4-9, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
- Brandon Nimmo 0-8, BB, 3 K
- Pete Alonso 1-8, HR, BB, 3 K
- Starling Marte 3-8, K
- Jeff McNeil 1-6, 2B, BB
- Francisco Lindor 2-4, 2B, K
- Tommy Pham 0-5, K
- Tomás Nido 1-4
- Daniel Vogelbach 1-3
- Luis Guillorme 1-1, BB
Three Things To Watch For:
- Logan Webb and homers: Logan Webb’s major weakness this year has been homers. He’s allowed five of them through four starts this season. That’s an early season 1.9 HR/9 inning rate, compared to his career stat of 0.7 HR/9. The Mets on this away trip have been home run happy (mainly Pete Alonso). Can the Mets exploit this today?
- David Peterson and homers: Peterson is going through something similar. He’s giving up homers at a rate of 2.2 HR/9 where he is normally at 1.2 HR/9. The difference is three of the five homers that Peterson gave up all happened in the same game where Webb has allowed two homers in the same start twice already. Peterson’s H/9 is also way up this season to 11.3, his previous career high was 8.6 H/9.
- A rested back of the bullpen: Thanks to the Mets bats the Mets have been able to give David Robertson and Adam Ottavino the last two days off. Brooks Raley has been a big part of this pitching on back to back days, and only throwing 20 pitches in the process.
Let’s Go Mets!
