The Mets begin their highly anticipated 2023 campaign this afternoon as they take on the Marlins in Miami. Fresh off a 101-win season, the Mets are hungry to take the division and make a deep run in October. After a wild off-season, the Mets have had a tough spring, losing Edwin Díaz and José Quintana to injuries. This is Opening Day though. Today is the day optimism and wild dreaming about all of the opportunities the Mets have this season.
Max Scherzer will kick off the season for the Mets. He made 23 starts in his first season with the Mets tossing 145 1/3 innings with a 2.29 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 0.908 WHIP and a 169 ERA+. Incredibly, Scherzer never faced the Marlins last season however there are many Marlins who have faced Scherzer over his career:
- Jean Segura 13-36, HR, BB, 8 K
- Garrett Cooper 2-18, 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
- Avisaíl García 4-13, 3B, 2 HR, 3 K
- Jon Berti 3-9, BB, 3 K
- Joey Wendle 3-9, 3 K
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1-3, 3B, K
- Jorge Soler 0-3, 2K
The Mets bats will get a tall order on their first day of the season – the 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner, Sandy Alcántara. Last season he made 32 starts and tossed a league leading 228 2/3 innings including a league leading six complete games. Over that stretch he had a 2.28 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 0.980 WHIP and a 178 ERA+. He faced the Mets four times last year and the Mets were able to get to him a bit more than other teams. He allowed 11 runs, 10 earned (3.33 ERA) over 27 innings from 26 hits and five walks while striking out 21. The Mets have the following career numbers against Sandy:
- Pete Alonso 5-30, 3 2B, HR, BB, 8 K
- Jeff McNeil 9-31, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
- Brandon Nimmo 4-29, 2 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
- Francisco Lindor 7-23, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
- Eduardo Escobar 2-18, K
- Luis Guillorme 5-15, 5 K
- Starling Marte 4-13, 2 3B, HR, 3 K
- Mark Canha 3-8, 2B, HR, BB< K
- Daniel Vogelbach 4-9, 3 2B, HR, BB, K
- Omar Narváez 1-5, K
Three Things To Watch For
- Mets on Opening Day: The Mets are a statistical anomaly for Opening Day. The Mets are 40-21 on Opening Day, by far the best in the league and it’s made even better considering the first eight seasons the Mets lost on Opening Day. Facing Sandy Alcántara today is going to put that record in jeopardy and give the Mets probably their toughest challenge since the years when they had to face Max Scherzer on the first day of the season.
- A Game of Batting Champs: Today’s game will feature the National League batting champion, Jeff McNeil, against the American League batting champion, Luis Arraez. Arraez was traded to the Marlins in the off-season for a package built around Pablo López. Even crazier, if Justin Verlander got the start today we would have last years Cy Young Award winners in the same game as both batting champions. Anyway, I don’t know if both leagues batting champions have ever faced off to start a season before. It is definitely unusual.
- Late Inning Bullpen Watch: How do the Mets respond to not having Edwin Díaz to close out games? Is it going to be David Robertson? Adam Ottavino? Both depending on the situation? It is very difficult to replace the best closer in the game but both Robertson and Ottavino had excellent seasons in 2022. Ottavino weas in the 99th percentile for average exit velocity, 97th for hard hit percentage and 89th for strikeout percentage. David Robertson was in the 97th percentile for expected batting average, 90th for strikeout percentage and 99th for fastball spin. Unlike Díaz who was top in every category, both Robertson and Ottavino have some holes. Players are more likely to hit Robertson hard. They both struggle to get players to chase their pitches. The late inning scenario is something the Mets will be watching all season.
Let’s Go Mets!
