Baseball teams are always taking flyers on different arms before the start of the season. One thing the Mets have been good for the last several seasons is taking a flyer on a lefty reliever. T.J. McFarland is that lefty reliever for the Mets this season.
McFarland was drafted in round four by the Cleveland Guardians back in 2007. The Orioles then drafted McFarland a five years later in 2012 during the Rule V draft. He had his most consistent playing time with the Orioles, pitching 198 1/3 innings over 121 games from 2013 to 2017. Over that stretch he posted a 4.27 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.548 WHIP and a 96 ERA+.
After he got released from the Orioles, he bounced around a bunch of organizations. He played with the Diamondbacks for three seasons, this included his best season in the majors. In 2018 he pitched 72 innings over 47 games with a 2.00 ERA, 1.194 WHIP, 3.63 FIP and a 211 ERA+. Then the Athletics, the Nationals (never played in a major league game) and finally the Cardinals for the 2021 and 2022 season.
Last season he pitched 32 2/3 innings with the Cardinals over 28 games with a 6.61 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 1.622 WHIP and a 58 ERA+. For comparison, his career numbers are a 4.13 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.463 WHIP and a 102 ERA+. This regression is even more stark when considering one season before, in 2021, he tossed 38 2/3 innings over 38 games with a 2.56 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.060 WHIP and a 154 ERA+.
His 2022 numbers make more sense when you dive into his Baseball Savant page. His fastball velocity was in the 5th percentile, spin in the 2nd percentile and extension in the 3rd percentile. Last season his fastball averaged at 89 mph, changeup at 82 and he mixed in a slider 15% of the time with an average velocity of 80 mph.
Twice in McFarland’s career he has surprised with tremendous seasons. A strong spring can rocket him up the depth charts and he could be a surprise lefty for the Mets. Right now, this seems unlikely. There’s no risk in taking a look though!
