Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
Corey Oswalt did not factor into the Mets 2019 season at all. Something is going to have to go very wrong with the 2020 Mets for him to factor into this year as well. Depending on which veterans stay with the team after they get assigned to Minor League camp, the Mets are going to break camp with 6 starters, then there’s Ramirez, in camp on an NRI with Gsellman on the depth chart. After those 8 pitchers is Oswalt with Sewald. But for some reason or another, Oswalt will probably see playing time in 2020 so we wanted to do a quick projection article.
2019 Stats: 2 G, 6.2 IP, 12.15 ERA, 6.36 FIP, 2.250 WHIP, 6.8 K/9
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
There were moments in 2018 were Oswalt looked quite good, but the Mets never game him consistent or regular playing time and jerked him around between clubs. That will probably happen again in 2020 if the Mets need him. His average projection line looks serviceable as a spot starter, and the Mets would certainly be able to survive with him pitching, it’s just not ideal.
