Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
The Mets bullpen was one of the worst in the majors last year. Seth Lugo was one of the best relievers in the majors last year. That tells us two things. First, the Mets success in 2020 is dependent on Lugo having another great year. Two, Lugo put in some serious work at such a high level last year that for the Mets bullpen to still be one of the worst, the other guys in the pen must have had some really bad stats (which we know is true).
2019 Stats: 61 G, 80.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 0.900 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 2.2 WAR, 2.71 DRA
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
These stat projections seem just about inline with everyone’s typical personalities. ESPN loves to double down on good seasons, and they are way out in front in almost every category. Baseball Reference is one of the more conservative projection programs, and they still have Lugo have a good season, just a significant step from last year. BP seams like the most realistic because they’re in the middle, which is why the average line reflects their thoughts. If that’s what Lugo does, than the Mets bullpen may be in good shape in 2020.
We have to remember though the main lesson in 2019: it takes more than one good reliever to carry the team.
