Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
Robert Gsellman last year had an exceedingly average year (as evidenced by his 0.0 WAR). That was both a good thing and a bad thing for the Mets. While the Mets bullpen was imploding, Gsellman was a fine option to go to, except, since his season was average his results were average. Essentially, he had an opportunity last year, with everything falling apart around him, to stand out and it just didn’t happen.
2019 Stats: 52 G, 63.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.366 WHIP, 0.0 WAR, 4.85 DRA
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
Gsellman is an interesting position this year. The Mets are going to force a way to get him on the roster, probably. Every time I write a roster for the Mets, Gsellman is the first name I end up leaving off. Signing both Wacha and Porcello means that one of them (or Steven Matz for some inexplicable reason) fall to the bullpen. Betances is a critical addition to the pen as well and Brach performed well enough last year to demand a spot in the bullpen.
When you look at Gsellman’s projections for next year – they are also exceedingly average. Both a good and a bad thing. Right now there is enough reason to believe this leaves him just slightly on the wrong side of getting a roster spot. But if anything happens to anyone before the season, then he should be on the team.
