Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
The Mets signed Brach in the middle of the season after the long time Oriole was struggling in his first stint with the Cubs. Even though he only pitched in 16 games and 14.2 innings in Queens, the tri-state native was a different pitcher on the Mets and impressed enough that the Mets signed him again in the off-season. Did the Mets catch lightning in a bottle? Right now Brach is battling for a bullpen spot, one that looks like is his to lose. There’s reason to feel that the Mets may have made a smart move here.
2019 Stats: 58 G, 54.1 IP, 5.47 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.620 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
2019 Mets: 16 G, 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 1.227 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 WAR, 3.78 DRA
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
Most projections see Brach have a down year compared to his career stats, but a better year than his total year in 2019. If he puts up the average line in a full year with the Mets, I think most of us will be happy. That would be a successful year for him in the role that the Mets have in mind for him. For Brach and the Mets, it’s more than just Brach. If Diaz, Familia, Lugo and Betances are all who we think they can be, then Brach’s line here is just gravy for the Mets. If the Mets need Brach to be a stopper more and more because of problems elsewhere in the pen, then this could be a flash point for a team vying for a playoff spot.
We like the Brach signing. We like local guys playing for the team. And it helps that my Mom, a huge Oriole fan, has also been talking positively about Brach for years. I guess I have tilted view of him now.
