Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
The Mets signing of Matt Adams signals that they are worried about Jed Lowrie‘s health coming into the 2020 season, which makes sense. Last year Adams was a solid bat with pop for the Nationals, but not a player who got on base a lot. He’ll be fighting for a spot on the 40 man roster this spring with the Mets as he’s here with an NRI.
2019 Stats: 333 PA, 310 AB, 20 HR, .226/.276/.465, 0 WAR, 85 DRC+
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
His projections play close to his 2019 stats, that he won’t get on base a lot and he’ll have a lot of pop. Now the projections are all over the place when it comes to playing time, which makes sense, that’s difficult to predict. Personally, if this is the stat line he brings, I rather the Mets just go with Dominic Smith who will play the same positions as Adams. Carrying both Smith and Adams probably squeezes out Luis Guillorme who is more valuable defensively than both Smith and Adams + Smith just seems better for the aura of the Mets and is still developing as a hitter.
