Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
So this article was written on 2/21 and hopefully Dominic Smith is still a Met at that point. You have to feel bad for Dominic Smith last season. He had a tremendous spring training last year, but Pete Alonso had a better one. He had a great season until he broke his leg. He then comes back and has the last Mets AB of the season, launching a walk off homer into the night to send the Mets into 2020.
Does it seem like Dominic Smith was better than the average player last year? Well according to Baseball Prospectus, he was! By 12%. The question going into this season is how can the Mets get him more playing time. There are five outfielders fighting for 3 spots plus third base and he’s blocked by Alonso. If I had to pick one player in particular that is blocking Smith at this point, I would go with Robinson Cano. If Cano is not on the team, then Jeff McNeil is starting at 2nd, Davis at 3rd. and now Smith can get consistent time in the outfield.
2019 Stats: 197 PA, 177 AB, 11 HR, .282/.355/.525, 0.7 WAR, 112 DRC+
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
The projection programs have Dominic Smith having another solid year. They don’t think his .500+ slugging is sustainable, and they are all over the place when it comes to playing time, but they see him as have a successful season even with regression. What I do find surprising is the range of WAR. They have him from a negative WAR to the same WAR he had last year.
We support Smith here and hope he gets gets more playing time, somehow.
