Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
Jeff McNeil had a phenomenal season last year. A 5.0 WAR season, he instantly became one of the best player on the Mets and may projections see him as one of the best players on the Mets next season. He just was always doing the right thing on the field, had an insane OBP last year, plus as the season continued last year – he started to hit homers too, stealing our hearts.
2019 Stats: 567 PA, 510 AB, 23 HR, .318/.384/.531, 5.0 WAR, 129 DRC+
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
Projections see his power taking a step back, and his OBP as well, which makes sense. His numbers were insane last year. That being said, he is still projected to be above a 3.0 WAR player, something the Mets need him to be. I’m not worried at all about his offense this year.
I am worried about his playing time. Once Lowrie and Cespedes are healthy, McNeil is going to enter a timeshare with J.D. Davis, a timeshare that McNeil should win. Basically Lowrie, more than Cespedes, robs a lot of players of playing time where they are the better hitter.
I’m just so excited to see McNeil play baseball this year. He’s so much fun to watch, he puts up some great numbers and makes the Mets enjoyable.
