Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
In what may go down as the worst free agent signing in the history of the Mets, Jed Lowrie was brought in before last season on a two year, 20 million dollar deal. BVW signed his former client even though the Mets had a crowded infield already, made more crowded by trades for both Robinson Cano and J.D. Davis. But he was signed and then right before spring training games last year he got a mysterious leg injury. He somehow played a little bit at the end of the year for no explicable reason outside of getting him into games. He arrived to camp this year in a brace.
2019 Stats: 8 PA, 7 AB, BB, .000/.125/.000
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
So most projections see Lowrie playing about half a season, which seems optimistic considering we still don’t know the state of his health. At a .720ish OPS, he’s a solid hitter but wouldn’t be a starter compared to the other hitters on the Mets. But his price tag dictates he plays.
We’ll see if any of these projections are right at the end of the season. If they are, I’m curious to hear how they handled Lowrie. I really am not excited for him right now. He’s going to squeeze someone out of a roster spot, his position seems superfluous, there’s not a lot of hope that he is the player that was with the Athletics and finally the only way someone takes him a trade is if the Mets put a real prospect with him.
