Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
Luis Guillorme got into 10 more games last year but somehow had 4 less trips to the plate. Which is surprising because by most metrics he improved at the plate last season going from a .209/.284/.239 line to .246/.324/.361 and going from -0.3 WAR to 0.3 WAR. We all know his bat isn’t the reason why the Mets want him around, it’s his glove, which is probably why he got into more games last year – more a late inning defensive option.
2019 Stats: 45 G, 70 PA, 61 AB, HR, .246/.324/.361, 0.3 WAR, 85 DRC+
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
The problem with projecting Luis is figuring out his playing time. I think he makes the team out of camp. The only thing really blocking him at this point is Lowrie and Cespedes’ health. If both of them are healthy and ready to go out of camp, then Luis gets squeezed out of a roster spot. That’s a shame because the Mets don’t have a defensive minded middle/corner infielder anywhere else on their roster. My secondary concern is Eduardo Nunez. I would pick Guillorme over Nunez every day now, even if Nunez has an amazing Spring Training. If they both have an average spring training and there’s a spot for one of them, despite Nunez not even being on the 40 man yet, I don’t trust the front office to make the right decision because Nunez used to be a star.
His projections have him hitting about what he did last year if not a tick better. I think that’s more than worth the intangibles that he brings. Plus a not fully healthy Lowrie is probably a strain on everything rather than Luis he just feels like he fits.
But I’ve been supporting Luis for a long time now and it still feels like the Mets refuse to lean into him. Use him! He’s the only one who fits his profile Here’s hoping we see more Guillorme this year!
