2020 Conglomerate Mets Projections: Yoenis Céspedes

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Yoenis Cespedes had quite the year last year. He was recovering massive heal surgery, a surgery that was probably delayed the previous year because Mets ownership wanted him to play through pain. While recovering he broke his ankle in a wild boar attack, a story that some how only broke during the off-season. In complete, peak, Mets-Universe, being attacked by a boar doesn’t even begin to crack the most important and wildest stories of the Mets off-season.

It’s not clear what he will be able to do once he’s fully back. What is clear is that he has been working hard at coming back and he wants to be back. The non-internet journalists that cover the Met have been unfair in their coverage of Céspedes for a while now, it is not a surprise that he doesn’t want to speak to the media this year.

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

First, everyone except ESPN sees Cespedes playing for about half a season, with a significant slugging percentage and good OPS, especially for missing the last year and a half of baseball. I can’t shake the memory of 2015 Céspedes, putting the Mets on his back. If he has a positive DRC+ this season like BP is suggesting, he could be the catalyst on this team.

This team is so much fun when he plays. This lineup is so much more dangerous when he plays. The Mets still have a ton of corner outfielders, and hopefully Luis Rojas can make it work. If Céspedes is healthy, then we could be in for a fun year.